Making money depends on Kondratiev waves; losing money depends on strength! From the perspective of the Kondratiev Wave cycle theory: Currently (January 2026), the global economy is at a critical turning point: the end of the depression phase of the fifth Kondratiev cycle (driven by information technology/internet), and the beginning or already entering the recovery phase of the sixth Kondratiev cycle (driven by AI, new energy, biotechnology, etc.). Mainstream phase divisions and current positioning of the Kondratiev cycle are usually categorized into four stages: recovery, prosperity, recession, and depression, each lasting about 50-60 years. The common classification is as follows:

Fifth Kondratiev (around 1990-2025): core drivers are the internet, mobile internet, and information technology. The prosperity period roughly from 2000-2008/2010 (growth continued after the internet bubble). The recession phase approximately from the 2010s to early 2020s. The depression phase roughly from 2015-2025 (overlaid with pandemic, inflation, deleveraging, geopolitical conflicts, etc., leading to sluggish global economic growth, high debt pressure, and stagnant productivity).

Most macro analyses believe that 2025 is the last or bottom year of the fifth Kondratiev depression phase, with a gradual exit from the bottom starting in 2026. The sixth Kondratiev (expected from 2025/2026 to around the 2070s): core technological paradigm shifts toward artificial intelligence (AI), new energy (photovoltaics/storage/hydrogen/electric vehicles), biotechnology/quantum computing, etc., integrating.

2026 is widely regarded as the starting point or official beginning of the recovery phase. Features include: new technologies moving from laboratory/early commercialization to large-scale application, accelerated infrastructure investment, productivity beginning to rebound, economy gradually emerging from the trough, low inflation stabilizing or mildly rising, and emerging industries becoming the engine of economic growth.

Typical signals and consensus among macro analysts and institutional reports (such as Xueqiu, Eastmoney, some brokerage research reports) position 2026 as the “year of turning point” or the “start of Kondratiev recovery.”

Global phenomena may include “Pig Oil Resonance” (pig cycle + oil prices/commodity rebound), Federal Reserve policy shift toward easing (cutting rates or expectations of QE), cross-border capital returning, and emerging market recovery.

Asset opportunities include: AI infrastructure, computing power, new energy chains, gold/metals, and some commodities, viewed as a configuration logic of left-hand AI and right-hand physical assets.

However, the recovery’s early stage still involves volatility: incomplete clearance of old capacity, debt restructuring pressures, geopolitical and policy uncertainties, potentially showing “W-shaped” or “U-shaped” bottoms.

Kondratiev theory belongs to a long-cycle macro framework, with strong explanatory power but not an exact predictive tool. Different scholars have 1-5 year differences on specific start and end years (some believe the sixth wave started after 2009, but mainstream views still see 2025-2026 as a watershed).

Current positioning is more based on technology diffusion curves, economic data (such as global PMI, productivity growth, inflation bottoms), and market narrative consensus.

In 2026, we are most likely transitioning from the “end of the fifth Kondratiev depression” into the “initial recovery of the sixth Kondratiev wave.” This is a potential long-term wealth reconfiguration window, but in the short term, caution is still needed regarding the pains and uncertainties of cycle switching. #周期 # Economy #AI # Finance #web3