On-Chain Metrics Map Bitcoin's Bull Run Cycle: Where Next?

Bitcoin stands at a critical juncture in its current bull run cycle, with market sentiment fragmented and price action consolidating. Yet beneath the surface noise, on-chain data tells a compelling story about where this cycle is headed. These signals extend far beyond short-term price movements, offering insights into the weeks and months ahead. By examining key valuation frameworks, we can uncover the structural levels that will likely define this bull run cycle’s trajectory and ultimate peaks.

Why Short-Term Holders Anchor Each Bull Run Cycle

The foundation of any bull run cycle rests on the Short-Term Holder Realized Price—essentially the average cost basis of recent market entrants. This metric has consistently served as a dynamic pivot point throughout Bitcoin’s history, marking zones where the cycle either accelerates or stabilizes.

Currently, Bitcoin trades around $88,000, while the STH realized price sits slightly higher. This proximity is crucial: when Bitcoin holds above this level during a bull run cycle, it signals that recent buyers remain in profit or breakeven, bolstering confidence and attracting fresh capital. This dynamic was evident in 2017, where each retest of the STH realized price created ideal accumulation zones before the next upswing.

The structural support provided by this metric is not merely psychological—it reflects real market conviction. When the short-term holder cohort remains profitable, behavioral economics suggests they’re more likely to add positions rather than capitulate. This cascading effect often ignites the next phase of the bull run cycle.

MVRV Ratios: The Cycle’s Profit-Taking Compass

Beyond the realized price itself, the Short-Term Holder Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio provides a lens into whether Bitcoin is overextended or underbought. This ratio has historically defined profit-taking zones that punctuate each bull run cycle.

Across previous cycles, clear resistance points have emerged at MVRV levels of 1.33, 1.43, and 1.64—corresponding to 33%, 43%, and 64% unrealized gains respectively. These aren’t arbitrary thresholds; they represent psychological profit-taking zones where portions of the market exit positions.

Using the current short-term holder realized price and these historical multiples, we can project where this bull run cycle’s resistance will likely manifest:

• 1.33 Multiple: ~$117,000–$120,000 range
• 1.43 Multiple: ~$126,000–$130,000 range
• 1.64 Multiple: ~$144,000–$150,000 range

These projections align with historical ceilings, suggesting the $120,000–$150,000 band represents the probable resistance zones for this phase of the bull run cycle, assuming Bitcoin maintains its current structural support.

Long-Term Holder Peaks: Tracking Bull Run Maturity

Long-term holders—those holding for years—reveal the macrocycle’s emotional extremes through the LTH MVRV Ratio. This metric tracks unrealized profits among Bitcoin’s most seasoned investors and often signals when a bull run cycle is approaching exhaustion.

The 2017 bull run cycle peaked with LTH MVRV at 36.2. The 2021 cycle reached 12.58—a 65% reduction, exemplifying Bitcoin’s maturing market structure. Applying this diminishing factor to current conditions suggests a potential LTH MVRV peak around 4.2–4.4 for this cycle.

Given that long-term holders’ realized price sits near $37,400, this implies a cycle target of approximately $157,000–$165,000. Notably, this overlaps precisely with the upper projections derived from short-term holder MVRV analysis—a compelling convergence suggesting $160,000+ represents genuine cycle resistance rather than speculative fantasy.

Rolling Frameworks: Adapting to Evolving Bull Run Dynamics

Traditional static MVRV metrics have limitations as markets evolve. The solution lies in rolling frameworks that adapt to changing market conditions and capture the modern bull run cycle’s nuances.

The 2-Year Rolling MVRV Z-Score eliminates much of the “peak diminishment” seen in static models. Historically, peaks near +3.0 align with cycle tops, while troughs near –1.0 mark cycle bottoms. Currently, readings hover closer to accumulation-friendly territory than sell-off zones, suggesting Bitcoin remains in a constructive phase of the bull run cycle.

For finer granularity, the 100-day Rolling MVRV captures intra-cycle fluctuations. Spikes above +2 have consistently marked local tops where traders should reduce exposure, while dips below –2 signal optimal Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) windows. This framework has historically identified some of the most precise entry and exit points within each bull run cycle’s broader trend.

The Road Ahead: What This Bull Run Cycle Signals

The convergence of multiple on-chain metrics paints a coherent picture for this bull run cycle. Short-term holder support near current levels, coupled with projected MVRV resistance in the $120,000–$150,000 range and long-term holder targets near $160,000–$165,000, suggests substantial room remains for price appreciation.

More importantly, these frameworks reveal the bull run cycle operates on measurable, repeatable principles. As Bitcoin’s market matures and institutional capital deepens, these core on-chain tools remain indispensable for cycle analysis. They illuminate when participants are profitable (thus likely to hold or compound), when behavioral shifts are probable, and where the next inflection points will likely emerge.

If Bitcoin sustains its current support structure, the data suggests the $120,000–$165,000 range represents the probable upper boundary for this bull run cycle phase. Whether the market reaches these heights depends on sustained capital inflows and macroeconomic conditions—but on-chain metrics indicate the structural foundation is solid.

For investors navigating this bull run cycle, the message is clear: track short-term holder realized price as your primary support reference, monitor MVRV levels for profit-taking opportunities, and use rolling Z-Scores to identify accumulation windows. These tools, when combined, transform the bull run cycle from an emotional roller coaster into a measurable, navigable journey.

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Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making any investment decisions.