The dollar begins to lose momentum and the global market readjusts risks again

Source: CritpoTendencia Original Title: The dollar begins to lose momentum and the global market re-calibrates risks Original Link: In recent weeks, the behavior of the dollar has once again become the focus of macroeconomic discussions. Not due to an immediate collapse or an official decision already made, but because of something more subtle: the accumulation of signals that are starting to strain the current balance of the monetary system.

The DXY index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of currencies, has been showing progressive wear. It’s not a sharp movement, but it is persistent. And in markets, when a structural variable stops pushing, the consequences tend to appear first in expectations rather than in prices.

A recent analysis by Ash Crypto revisited a scenario that until recently seemed unlikely: an indirect intervention to support the Japanese yen. If that were to happen, the mechanism would be known but uncomfortable for the dollar. To strengthen the yen, someone must sell dollars. And selling dollars, in practical terms, involves increasing its supply.

THE US DOLLAR INDEX DXY IS ABOUT TO CRASH REALLY HARD 🚨

And here’s why:

For the first time this century, the Fed is planning to stop the Japanese yen from going down.

This is what we call “yen intervention.”

To do this, the Fed first needs to create new dollars and then use…

The key point is not the intervention itself but what it represents. For the first time in years, the dollar would cease to be the asset that absorbs all global tensions without consequences. And when that happens, the rest of the market begins to move.

When the dollar loosens, the market listens

There are recent precedents that the market does not forget. In 2024, an intervention by Japan’s Ministry of Finance caused weeks of volatility and confusion. However, once the movement was digested, risk assets found a floor and began to recover strongly. Bitcoin and the crypto segment were no exception.

The difference now is the context. This time, the expectation revolves around the Federal Reserve. And when the Fed appears as a possible actor, the market does not wait for confirmations: it adjusts positions beforehand. Not because it has certainty, but because it needs to anticipate.

Within this framework, Bitcoin once again fulfills its role as a thermometer. Not so much because of its current price — which today hovers around $86,000 — but because of its sensitivity to a weakening dollar. Historically, periods of weakness in the DXY have coincided with a greater risk appetite and flows seeking coverage outside the traditional system.

None of this implies a linear or immediate scenario. Volatility is likely to persist, markets will test levels, and narratives will contradict each other. But when several pieces start to fit in the same direction, ignoring them is often more costly than paying close attention.

The dollar is not crashing outright. But it is stopping its push. And in global markets, that difference is often enough to change the climate.