Can XRP Surpass Bitcoin? Analyst Warns of Global Liquidity Crisis.

Key Points

A cryptocurrency analyst warns that a global liquidity crisis could expose weaknesses in traditional settlement systems.

Oil price shocks and a decline in yen trading may trigger forced sales in #البيتكوين , ETFs, and stablecoins.

The spot settlement model for #Ripple is seen as a potential advantage in turbulent market conditions.

Crypto analyst Jake Cleaver believes XRP will outperform Bitcoin to become the top digital asset. In part four of the "XRP Domino Theory" series, he explains how a global financial crisis could force markets to adopt real-time settlement infrastructure.

Here is an in-depth analysis.

Oil Shock Could End Yen Trading

Cleaver points to escalating geopolitical tensions involving Iran, Venezuela, and the yen, and says that a 20-40% rise in oil prices could end the yen-based trading.

Over three decades, hundreds of trillions of dollars have been borrowed in yen and invested in Treasury bonds, stocks, and digital currencies. Japanese bond yields are now at their highest levels in 30 years across all maturities.

"Cleaver said, 'When the interest trade ends, people will sell everything they can to move toward what they see as the safest asset, which is likely to be Japanese bonds.'"

Japan holds approximately $1.6 trillion in U.S. Treasury bonds, while BRICS countries hold about $2.3 trillion.

Tether's Balance Sheet Risks

Tether's market cap is $190 billion, of which only $135 billion is backed by U.S. Treasury bonds. The rest includes around 100,000 Bitcoin, over 100 tons of gold, and private loans.

Cleaver warns that the demand for global margin coverage could lead to a collapse of these assets by 20-50%, putting downward pressure on Tether's peg. Cryptocurrency exchanges rely on Tether for liquidity, and if its value drops, order books will thin out and withdrawals will slow.

ETFs Forced to Sell

In a panic, Cleaver expects MicroStrategy and Bitcoin ETFs to sell. Institutional redemptions will push authorized participants to liquidate their Bitcoin holdings, creating a vicious cycle.

His forecast: Bitcoin price could drop to $20,000.

Why Will #Bitcoin Surpass?

$XRP price stabilizes within 3-5 seconds. This speed is crucial as counterparty risks increase.

Kleaver estimates the available supply of #XRP at less than one billion tokens, possibly only 100 million. At current prices, a buying pressure of just $200 million could deplete the supply. Then, the price could surge significantly until XRP holders decide to sell.

If the crisis unfolds as Kleaver predicts, XRP's role in global finance could change dramatically by the end of the year.

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