The Governor of the Bank of Japan, Masayoshi Ueda, recently stated that the true level of the neutral rate of quantitative easing is actually quite difficult to determine. It sounds like a whisper, but behind it reflects a common dilemma faced by central banks worldwide.

The key point here— the neutral rate is the interest rate level that theoretically neither stimulates nor restrains the economy. It sounds very academic, but it directly influences the direction of central bank policies. Ueda's remarks imply that, in the current complex economic environment, this "golden point" is fundamentally hard to find.

From another perspective, what does this mean for the capital markets? The uncertainty of central bank policies will lengthen. If even the neutral rate is difficult to define, then questions like when the rate hike cycle will end and when liquidity will truly loosen become more ambiguous. For traders concerned with the global liquidity environment, this policy gray area often harbors opportunities— but also hidden risks.

More practically, Japan, as the world's third-largest economy, whose central bank's policy thinking can ripple through global financial markets. Ueda's comments somewhat reflect the collective confusion of global central banks in the post-pandemic era: economic data are changing, inflation trajectories are shifting, policy goals are evolving, and the neutral rate, this fixed point, is becoming increasingly elusive.