This week's market is destined to be unstable. The expectation of interest rate cuts remains unclear, and last night Trump's comments on the Federal Reserve Chair appointment were clearly outside market expectations. The first reaction of risk assets was (let's just say a quick jab). This is not a technical issue; it's a disruption in the macro narrative.

Currently, the US Congress has only passed about half of the government funding bills. Based on past experience (December 2023), if the remaining budget or temporary extensions are not passed before January 30, a partial government shutdown is almost certain to trigger liquidity tightening. History has shown: when Congress stalls, the market first dumps risk assets.
In extreme cases, the market may replicate last December's path. It is not surprising that SOL drops below 130 when liquidity is drained, but rather a result of the resonance between sentiment and structure.
ETH is somewhat special. The issuance of stablecoins continues to rise, coupled with traditional funds like Tom Lee and others publicly bullish on Ethereum, the fundamentals are gradually raising the floor. There is a chance to challenge 4000 in the first half of the year, but the process will definitely involve oscillations, pullbacks, and then another rally.
Personally, I prefer small positions to test the waters, mainly betting on volatility rather than direction. What truly determines the market trend is not a single indicator but the progress of Congress, policy signals, and liquidity rhythm. At this stage, the importance of contract traders monitoring news has already clearly surpassed monitoring K-line charts. #加密市场观察