Why does Goldman Sachs value prediction markets? Because they can detect "black swans" in advance.

The greatest value of prediction markets lies in their pursuit of "true expectations," rather than correctness. When most people are unwilling to express their opinions publicly, funds will vote on their behalf. For this reason, prediction markets often exhibit abnormal price fluctuations ahead of major events.

Goldman Sachs focuses on this area mainly from a risk management perspective. Traditional models rely on historical data, while prediction markets directly reflect current expectations and are especially sensitive to extreme risks. Whether it's geopolitical conflicts, policy shifts, or market crashes, prediction markets often provide signals ahead of time.

From this perspective, prediction markets are not meant to replace investment banks but to serve as a complementary tool. For institutions, understanding prediction markets is like gaining an additional "collective psychological X-ray," which is precisely what modern finance desperately needs. #高盛关注预测市场