$TSM

BULL's EYE! 🎯
TSMC’s Q4 2025 results came in clearly above expectations, and I think the core story is still advanced nodes plus AI demand.

Earnings and Revenue: The company reported $3.14 EPS and $33.73 billion in revenue. The market was expecting $2.90 EPS and $33.0 billion. On a year-over-year basis, profit grew 35% and revenue grew 20.5%.

Q1 2026 guidance: Revenue guidance is $34.6 to $35.8 billion. The midpoint is $35.2 billion, which is above Wall Street’s $33.38 billion target. So the message is that momentum isn’t slowing, it’s holding its pace.

Mix shift with advanced tech dominant: In Q4, 28% of wafer revenue came from 3nm, 35% from 5nm, and 14% from 7nm. In total, 7nm and below equals 77%. That ratio alone shows how strong leading edge demand is.

We see that TSMC has the wind at its back thanks to AI data center chips, especially on the Nvidia side. This lifts not only customers like $AMD and $NVDA, but also the equipment side like $AMAT, $ASML, $KLAC, and $LRCX. On top of that, the capex emphasis tied to new U.S. fabs is an extra positive for equipment stocks.

My read is that TSMC’s results confirmed the AI plus advanced node theme is still very strong, and this quarter was the kind of report that sets the tone for the semiconductor season.

Technically, it’s also one of the strongest...