Crypto Daily Report 01.13: Bitcoin Mid-term Correction Continues, ETF Fund Net Outflows Expand, Institutional Holdings Increase and Ethereum Long-term Outlook Predicted to Rise

I. Bitcoin Market Trends and Cycle Analysis
1. Recently, Bitcoin has entered a correction phase from its all-time high, with market opinions divided on whether it has reached a peak. Many analyses believe that this is a mid-term correction and not a full-blown bear market. The correction depth (36%) is smaller than the significant declines following past cycle peaks (e.g., over 50% drop within 90 days after the peaks in 2021 and 2017).
2. On the technical side, Bitcoin has again surpassed the 50-day moving average, maintaining a short-term bullish signal. However, macro factors such as resistance level breakthroughs and ETF fund flows require attention. The current correction period is 46 days, with a correction depth of less than 50%, indicating characteristics closer to a mid-term correction.
3. According to past cycle rules, peaks often occur approximately 18 months after halving events. The current correction period (46 days) and decline of 36% align with mid-cycle adjustments and do not indicate the start of a long-term bear market.
II. Bitcoin ETF Fund Flows
1. US spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs have recently shown net outflows. From January 6 to 8, Bitcoin ETFs experienced approximately $1.13 billion in net outflows, and Ethereum ETFs saw about $258 million outflow during the same period. On January 12, ten US Bitcoin ETFs withdrew approximately 3,734 BTC (about $33.89 million), and nine Ethereum ETFs withdrew about 42,299 ETH (approximately $13.12 million).
2. The outflows reflect a cautious market sentiment, offsetting the optimistic outlook at the start of the year. This is related to a continued cautious stance toward the end of 2025 and may impact liquidity and short-term prices of related assets in the crypto market.
III. Institutional Trends (Bitcoin Holdings Increase)
Michael Saylor-led Strategy issued new shares via ATM on January 11, raising about $1.25 billion and increasing holdings by 13,627 BTC. The average acquisition cost was $91,519. As of January 11, the total holdings reached 687,410 BTC, accounting for over 3% of the total Bitcoin supply worldwide, solidifying its position as the largest corporate Bitcoin holder globally.
IV. Standard Chartered Bank’s Ethereum Forecast
1. Standard Chartered Bank has raised its long-term price forecast for Ethereum, expecting it to reach $40,000 by the end of 2030. Due to structural advantages such as DeFi-led platforms and Layer 1 expansion, it believes Ethereum will outperform Bitcoin. The ETH-BTC ratio is expected to recover to 2021 highs.
2. In the short term, Ethereum’s performance has been sluggish compared to Bitcoin, leading to a downward revision of forecasts for 2026-2028. However, long-term prospects remain optimistic due to dominance in stablecoins, real assets, DeFi sectors, and benefits from the US 《CLARITY Act》 promoting DeFi.
V. Other Cryptocurrencies and Related ETF Trends
1. Ethereum has followed Bitcoin with a gradual rise. Some altcoins like XRP recorded double-digit gains. Solana-related ETFs saw inflows, with 36,370 SOL (about $5.09 million) entering on January 12. Meanwhile, Ethereum ETFs during the same period experienced outflows of about 42,299 ETH (approximately $13.12 million).
2. Market interest in alternative tokens is increasing, with some mainstream coins outperforming Bitcoin, indicating a growing preference for diverse crypto assets.
VI. Bitcoin Genesis Day and Historical Significance
17 years ago, Satoshi Nakamoto sent 10 BTC to Hal Finney, marking the first recorded peer-to-peer Bitcoin transaction. This event is considered a significant milestone in Bitcoin’s history. Today, this 10 BTC is worth nearly $1 million, symbolizing the success of the trustless digital cash transfer model.
VII. Specific Crypto Project Trends
1. Bitcoin-related project Bitcoin Hyper’s short-term growth outlook is pressured by ETF fund outflows. Its performance is closely linked to liquidity within the Bitcoin ecosystem and market sentiment.
2. DeepSnitch AI provides token contract risk audits through its AuditSnitch feature, with over 28 million tokens participating in staking. It is gaining attention as a market hedging tool.