The market is currently stuck at a critical point before the non-farm payroll data release. Bitcoin and Ethereum are moving very hesitantly. Basically, the market is waiting for a clear signal and has no direction for now.

Bitcoin just stabilized near the 90,000 level, and Ethereum is also sticking around 3,100. Today's movement has been particularly frustrating: in the morning, there was a small range of sideways consolidation with no significant change; in the afternoon, there was a sudden plunge. Although there was a slight rebound at the close, overall, there is still no strength.

The core reason for this volatility is the chaotic macro environment. Fed officials are giving mixed signals—some call for significant rate cuts this year, while others say inflation hasn't been suppressed enough to loosen policy. Capital is hesitant to enter the market. Weak non-farm payrolls and a strong services PMI add to the confusion. New crypto regulations in Hong Kong have increased institutional holding costs, reducing support funds, making the decline expected.

From a technical perspective, the 1-hour chart is very clear: in the morning, there was a small sideways range with low trading volume; in the afternoon, a large bearish candle dropped, with Bitcoin falling from 92,000 to the edge of 90,000, and Ethereum dropping from 3,180 to just above 3,100. During the decline, trading volume surged, and short-term funds all exited. The rebound at the end of the session indicates support is still there, but the strength is too weak.

Next, there will be a series of key signals. Tonight, initial jobless claims data will be released, followed by the non-farm payroll report on Friday. These two data points will directly influence the Fed's rate cut expectations and are likely to trigger significant volatility.

In the short term, avoid reckless bottom fishing. Wait and see. Only if Bitcoin stabilizes above 90,000 and Ethereum holds above 3,100 can there be hope for a small rebound. If support fails, the market will need to find new support levels downward. Also, keep a close eye on the Fed's actions and the direction of crypto regulation policies. $BTC #ETH走势分析