$BTC

Where could Bitcoin 2026 bottom out?

Many people ask me: if Bitcoin truly enters a bear market, where could the bottom be? Is it at 60k, 50k, or even lower?

To answer this question, I don’t rely on emotions or guesses. I base it on a very “old” but extremely reliable on-chain indicator during severe downturns: Realized Price.

Simply put, Realized Price is the average price at which all market participants bought Bitcoin. It can be seen as the “average cost basis” of the entire market.

Interestingly, in all previous bear markets, Bitcoin has exhibited a repeating behavior:
the price always touches the Realized Price, then drops below this level by a certain margin.

History shows:
2011 price was about 66% below the Realized Price
2015 about 48%
2018 about 35%
2022 about 33%

A very important point is: with each cycle, this decline becomes less severe. The larger the market and the more capital flows in, the fewer crashes like FTX will happen.

Back to the present, Bitcoin’s Realized Price is around 56,000 USD. But during a bear market, this line usually doesn’t stay still; it gradually declines over time.

If the scenario repeats like 2022, meaning the bottom price will be about 30–33% below the Realized Price, then the corresponding price range would be approximately 35,000–40,000 USD.

Additionally, looking a bit broader, the gap between the market price and the Realized Price has been narrowing with each cycle. From over 60% in the past, now it’s around 30%. Therefore, I lean toward the 2026 scenario: Bitcoin could be about 24–31% below the Realized Price, corresponding to a range of 40,000–43,000 USD.

In summary, the 35,000–45,000 USD range is not meant to scare or attract views. It’s based on historical comparison, observing price behavior around the Realized Price, and how markets “bottom out” in previous cycles.

Whether it hits that range and when will be answered by the market itself.
Our role is to understand where we are in the cycle, so we’re not driven by fleeting emotions.

Wishing everyone a week full of energy!