Macroeconomic Turbulence: What Could Drive Bitcoin to $150K Before a Potential Historic Correction?

Bitcoin stands at $92.94K as markets grapple with unprecedented macroeconomic headwinds. Macroeconomist Henrik Zeberg has outlined a scenario that’s capturing attention across the investment community: a dramatic price surge followed by a severe correction. According to Zeberg’s analysis, Bitcoin could surge to $150,000 by the year’s close—before facing a catastrophic downturn potentially pushing it below $10,000.

The Macroeconomic Context

Zeberg draws parallels between today’s financial landscape and the conditions that preceded the Great Depression. He warns of an impending recession coupled with systemic fragility in the private credit and shadow banking sectors. These structural vulnerabilities, he argues, could create the conditions for an extreme market reversal. The comparison isn’t mere hyperbole; it reflects concerns about unsustainable valuations and excessive leverage in multiple asset classes simultaneously.

Bitcoin’s Vulnerability to Market Shocks

A critical component of Zeberg’s thesis centers on Bitcoin’s tight alignment with equity markets. As a risk asset, Bitcoin has increasingly moved in tandem with stocks rather than functioning as an independent hedge. With stock indices trading at historically elevated valuations—what Zeberg characterizes as a massive bubble—Bitcoin faces downside exposure if equities correct sharply. This correlation dynamic fundamentally undermines Bitcoin’s traditional narrative as a portfolio diversifier.

A Two-Stage Market Scenario

The proposed trajectory involves two distinct phases: first, speculative momentum could propel Bitcoin higher as investors chase returns in a risk-on environment. However, should macroeconomic conditions deteriorate—whether triggered by credit market instability, banking sector stress, or recession confirmation—a reversal could be swift and severe. The magnitude of such a correction would leave many late-entrant investors facing substantial losses.

What Investors Should Consider

Zeberg’s warning emphasizes the importance of risk management in the current environment. While Bitcoin might experience additional upside in the near term, the asymmetric downside risk warrants caution. Investors should carefully assess their exposure, particularly if they’ve accumulated positions at elevated levels or lack adequate exit strategies.