Pi Network(PI), Mainnet Growth Paradox... "Battle to Absorb Supply from $0.22"

• Mainnet Migration Acceleration Causes Paradoxical Price Weakness… Surge in Exchange Deposits Intensifies ‘Selling Pressure’
• Current Price $0.21, Resistance at $0.2394 Faces a Crossroads… Weakening Support at $0.22 Signals Potential Reversal
• Breaking the October Low of $0.1919 Could Lead to All-Time Low ( $0.1533 ) Directly… Clear Conditions for Trend Reversal

Pi Network(Pi Network, PI), despite having enough growth momentum from the mainnet transition, continues to experience price weakness due to oversupply fears. The recent surge in exchange deposit volumes last week suggests that development progress and market sentiment are moving in completely opposite directions.

Why Mainnet Success Acts as a Paradox

The faster the mainnet migration progresses, the more tokens accumulate on exchanges, creating an ironic situation. According to PiScan(PiScan) data, the recent 24-hour deposit volume into centralized exchanges(CEX) reached 177,867 PI, with exchange holdings now increasing to 438.78 million tokens.

Pi Network has adopted AI technology to cut KYC(Customer Verification) verification times by 50%, and over 17.5 million users have completed verification. Over 6.42 million tokens were transferred to the mainnet just in December. While there is clear progress in network maturity, the supply available in the market continues to grow.

The problem is that actual demand cannot keep up. If supply increases without enough real use cases(Use Cases) built on the mainnet, the resulting pressure will inevitably be reflected in the price.

Current Technical Situation: Defensive Line Wavering Below $0.22

As of Monday, PI is fluctuating around $0.22, but the selling pressure is much stronger than buying. After about a 2% decline on Sunday, the market is focused more on defense than recovery.

The current resistance level on the chart is at the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) located at $0.2394. Failing to regain this level means it will be difficult to break out of the current bearish trend. Conversely, if this level is reclaimed on a closing basis, a medium-term upward setup could be established, targeting the $0.26–$0.28 range.

Auxiliary indicators also show unfavorable signals. The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 43, remaining below the baseline of 50, and the MACD and signal lines are maintaining a downward divergence below the zero line. There are no clear signs of trend reversal yet.

Downside Risk: Scenario if $0.1919 Breaks

The first support level is the October 11 low of $0.1919. If this level is broken, the chart’s defensive strength will weaken sharply. The next target would be the all-time low of $0.1533 recorded on October 10. Once threatened in this zone, additional lows are likely to form.

For now, whether the price can hold above $0.22 is a key short-term decision point. If this level collapses, selling sentiment is likely to intensify further.

Ultimately, Demand Generation Is Key

For long-term price stability of PI, building a practical utilization ecosystem on the mainnet is essential. No matter how technically prepared the mainnet is, if there is no ecosystem to generate value on top of it, increasing supply will only lead to price declines. Whether the current support at $0.22 can hold or if prices will fall further depends on upcoming developments in the mainnet project.