Analysis: The concentration of BTC holdings is decreasing, and the chip structure remains supported, so the probability of a rebound is higher than that of a false breakout followed by further decline.

On January 4th, on-chain data analyst Murphy stated, “As of January 1, 2026, the concentration of chips within a 5% range of the spot price of BTC reached 14.9%, just one step away from the high-risk volatility zone. However, subsequently on January 2 and January 3, the concentration decreased instead of increasing, and is now down to 14.5%. Meanwhile, the price of BTC is slowly rising. Historical data shows that if the increase in concentration is caused by rising BTC prices and then shifts to a decline, BTC will continue to trend upward during the decline, and vice versa. Currently, URPD data shows that BTC accumulated at $87,000 has reached 822,000 coins; there is serious disagreement between bulls and bears at this level. After intense battles, a direction is gradually emerging. When the turnover point begins to move to the right, it indicates that the support role of the largest volume bar at the current URPD peak is effective. Therefore, my personal judgment is that the reasonable range for movement is between $92,000 and $104,000. From a technical indicator perspective, when the daily K line closes above the descending trend line ($90,588), it signals the beginning of an expected rebound, and this condition has been met. While the risk of a false breakout cannot be ruled out, based on current data and indicators, I personally believe that the probability of a genuine rebound is higher than that of a false breakout continuing to decline. Unless, during this process, BTC breaks below the effective support at $87,000, falls back below the descending trend line, and the concentration of chips continues to rise, then a reassessment will be necessary.”