Bitcoin 10-week moving average triggers a key signal, historical data reveals potential correction risk

2026-01-01 10:34:10

Abstract generation in progress

【Chain Wen】Recently, traders have noticed a noteworthy technical signal—the 10-week and 50-week moving averages of Bitcoin have crossed. It may sound insignificant, but a look into history reveals some clues.

Similar moving average crossovers in the past have often signaled certain trends. In September 2014, there was a 67% plunge; in June 2018, a 54% halving; during the black swan event in March 2020, a 53% crash; and in January 2022, a 64% decline. These were not minor adjustments; each one was enough to keep holders awake at night.

If history repeats itself, at this pace, we might see a correction of 50% to 60%. In other words, Bitcoin could find support in the range of $38,000 to $50,000. Of course, technical analysis is just a reference; the market has countless variables, but these data points are worth keeping in mind.

BTC-3,62%

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MeaninglessGwei

· 01-03 16:06

Here comes this set of moving average magic again? I really don't believe history is repeating itself.

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LiquidationAlert

· 01-03 06:57

Coming back with this again? History will repeat itself, and I'll be eating my keyboard. Every time, you say the probability is high, but what happens? The market just loves to slap technical analysis in the face.

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LiquidityHunter

· 01-03 01:55

Another wave of the "history repeats itself" routine. Am I afraid of the 64% plunge? I've long been used to it.

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MetaEggplant

· 01-01 11:04

Here comes the big panic over moving average crossovers again. Every time, it's said to be a replay of history. But what’s the result? When things can’t go any lower, they start telling stories. If I buy into this, I deserve to lose. A fluctuation of 50 to 60... just listen, don’t take it seriously. Using events from 2014 to 2022 to scare people—things are very different now. Let’s wait until it really drops before talking. All these comments now are just armchair quarterbacking.

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0xSunnyDay

· 01-01 11:03

Once again, it's the same moving average theory. How high is the probability of history repeating itself?

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BoredWatcher

· 01-01 11:03

Will history really repeat itself? It depends on the mood of the big players, haha.

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WalletAnxietyPatient

· 01-01 10:44

Here we go again, I'm tired of hearing the argument that history repeats itself. --- 50% retracement? Alright, then I'll just add more to my position and wait to be caught. --- Every time they say "it's worth a little boost," I've been doing it for years, and my wallet is still thin. --- If moving averages crossing can predict declines, then we should all become traders. --- 2014, 2018, 2020, 2022... Your list scared me into thinking about full liquidation. --- It feels like technical analysis is just armchair quarterbacking; when a correction comes, everyone says "I knew it." --- From 3.8K to 50K, the range is as loose as if nothing was said, bro.

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