CHRW Stock Jumped 71.6% in Half a Year—But Should You Still Buy?

When investors look at C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. (CHRW) over the past six months, the numbers tell an impressive story. The transportation and logistics giant has delivered a 71.6% rally, leaving many peers in the dust. But here’s the question that matters: Is this the time to pile in, or have we already missed the best part?

The Rally Nobody Expected

CHRW’s six-month surge has been nothing short of remarkable. The stock’s outperformance relative to industry benchmarks and direct competitors like Expeditors International (EXPD) and Schneider National (SNDR) speaks volumes about market sentiment. For long-term holders, this kind of move is the dream scenario. But momentum can be deceiving, especially in logistics and transportation.

What’s Actually Driving This Rally?

The Shareholder Payback Story

C.H. Robinson has been writing dividend checks for over 25 years straight—a track record many investors respect. Most recently, in November 2025, the board green-lit a dividend increase of 1.6%, pushing the quarterly payout to 63 cents per share (equivalent to $2.52 annualized). That’s the kind of consistency that builds investor trust.

But dividend hikes alone don’t account for a 71.6% move. The company has been more aggressive with total shareholder returns. In 2022, CHRW handed back $285.32 million in dividends plus $1.45 billion in buybacks. Fast forward to the first nine months of 2025, and the company returned $227.05 million in dividends alongside $240.25 million in share repurchases. These aren’t token gestures—they’re meaningful capital allocations.

Efficiency Gains Are Real

Operating expenses have been coming down hard. During the first nine months of 2025, operating expenses fell 8.5% year-over-year to $1.5 billion. Personnel costs dropped 6.2% to $1.0 billion, driven by headcount optimization and the divestiture of the Europe Surface Transportation business. With average employee headcount down 10.9%, CHRW is clearly squeezing out more productivity per worker.

Add AI-driven automation into the mix—real-time pricing algorithms, machine learning integration, autonomous workflow agents—and you’ve got a company that’s investing in structural efficiency improvements that could stick around for years.

The Valuation Looks Reasonable

From a pure valuation lens, CHRW isn’t priced like a growth darling. The forward 12-month price-to-sales ratio sits at 1.14X versus 1.46X for the broader transportation services industry average. That discount is meaningful and suggests the market hasn’t fully priced in the operational improvements.

Analyst estimate revisions also support the bull case. Over the past 60 days, consensus earnings expectations for 2025 and 2026 have been revised upward, with Q1 2026 estimates also moving higher. When multiple analysts start raising numbers simultaneously, it typically reflects genuine confidence rather than hype.

But Here’s Where Things Get Messy

Freight Demand Is Soft

The dirty truth is that transportation capacity is bloated relative to demand. CHRW’s truckload pricing has been under pressure—lots of empty trucks chasing fewer shipments drives rates down fast. When your top line faces pricing headwinds, margin expansion only takes you so far. This isn’t a permanent condition, but it’s a real near-term drag.

Cash Situation Is Tight

At the end of Q3 2025, CHRW had $136.83 million in cash and equivalents. That sounds okay until you compare it to $1.18 billion in long-term debt. The math here is uncomfortable: the company cannot cover its debt obligations with available cash. This creates vulnerability if business conditions deteriorate further or if refinancing costs spike.

For a company returning $467 million to shareholders in just nine months, the balance sheet flexibility question becomes critical. Growth and returns are great—until they create financial stress.

The Investment Call

If you don’t own CHRW, patience makes sense. Yes, the stock has run hard, but the fundamental headwinds (weak freight demand, tight liquidity) haven’t been resolved. Waiting for a better entry point—perhaps when capacity/demand dynamics improve or when debt metrics improve—is the prudent move.

If you already hold shares, staying put is reasonable. The shareholder-friendly capital allocation, efficiency improvements, and reasonable valuation provide a reasonable foundation. Just don’t expect another 71.6% move in the next six months.

CHRW currently carries a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold), which aligns with this balanced perspective. The bull case is real, but so are the risks.