Quantum risk alert: Which BTC is truly at risk?

A recent analysis by the Human Rights Foundation (HRF) has raised significant concerns about Bitcoin asset security in the face of advancing quantum technology. According to this assessment, approximately 6.51 million BTC could face risks of compromise within the next decade, with an estimated value exceeding $188 billion.

The most exposed bitcoins: early addresses in the spotlight

The real focus is on P2PK (Pay-to-Public-Key) addresses, which represent a higher degree of vulnerability. Of the potentially at-risk bitcoins, 1.72 million reside in these old address types, making them primary targets. Among these vulnerable funds stands out a particular number: approximately 1.1 million BTC believed to belong to Satoshi Nakamoto, the anonymous creator of Bitcoin.

Critical time window according to experts

The Bitcoin Quantum Presidio Summit, held in July 2025, presented estimates on the development of sufficiently powerful quantum computers. Researchers concluded that machines capable of breaking Bitcoin’s current cryptographic systems could materialize within 5 to 10 years.

Solutions under debate, but no clear consensus

The technical community has proposed several approaches to safeguard vulnerable funds. Alternatives like SPHINCS+ and BIP360, based on quantum-resistant cryptography, have circulated as possible solutions. However, these proposals have not achieved a widespread consensus within the Bitcoin community, leaving the implementation of protective measures in a state of uncertainty.

The current situation of Bitcoin, with its price around $87.37K and a market capitalization of $1744.62B, underscores the importance of resolving these quantum security dilemmas before the threat becomes imminent.