Every time I hear the question "When will ETH return to 4000," I feel like it's asking when the water in the yard after a heavy rain will completely dry up. Short-term price guesses in the crypto market are basically like betting on the weather—meaningless. But from a long-term perspective, 4000 is not the end; at best, it's a transit point.

The key is not to guess the right price level, but to see clearly what forces are secretly fighting against each other. Right now, on the Ethereum stage, bulls and bears are fighting simultaneously across three dimensions. Who wins and who loses will directly determine when it can break through.

**Layer 1: Position Battle**

By the end of 2025, Ethereum will be fluctuating around $3400. On the surface, it looks like it's stuck, but underneath, there are dark currents surging. This resilience can be seen from two aspects:

First, ETH in exchanges is continuously flowing out. Since August, this trend has not stopped; the reserves on trading platforms have been steadily declining, resulting in a situation where "selling pressure is decreasing, and buying pressure can hold." This is a typical bullish signal.

Second, large funds are quietly building positions. The listed company SharpLink Gaming is the most aggressive—within just nine days, they bought over 140,000 ETH, with total holdings surpassing $1 billion, making it the world's largest enterprise-level ETH holder. They continue to buy during market declines, and such operations are often more honest than analyst predictions.