Bitcoin in 2026: Is the historical cycle still valid? Van der Poppe throws some heat on the bearish market forecast

The Bitcoin market is tense again due to a hot debate. Renowned analyst Michaël van de Poppe recently dismissed predictions of a bear market arriving in 2026. He believes that the reasoning based on historical cycles no longer functions as it used to.

Why are old models no longer effective?

Van de Poppe emphasizes an important point: Bitcoin is no longer a small asset for speculators. The increasing participation from institutional funds, large investment companies, and even major corporations has changed the nature of the market.

When an asset transitions from a juvenile stage to a mature market, previous cycle patterns become less effective. That’s why those who believe history will repeat itself may now be left behind.

How is Bitcoin different from traditional assets?

Van de Poppe also highlights clear differences between Bitcoin and gold. Although both are considered value-preserving assets, Bitcoin possesses unique characteristics that gold does not:

• Better portability and storage
• Hard supply capped at (21 million BTC)
• On-chain transparency

These factors suggest that Bitcoin has the potential to maintain strength even during correction phases.

Is the 2026 bear market prediction correct?

Van de Poppe’s view directly challenges the relatively common forecasts within the crypto community. Instead of following historical scenarios, he suggests we consider new factors: current Bitcoin ETF funds, institutional capital flows, and broader acceptance from pension and insurance funds.

All of these could extend the duration of future market cycles, reducing the severity of downturns that previously caused markets to crash.

This debate shows: to accurately predict Bitcoin, we cannot rely solely on history. The market is evolving, and analysts need to evolve as well.