2025-12-26 18:21:59

The most heartbreaking thing about this game in the market is that: good news often turns into bad news once it's fully priced in. Recently, this round of sharp decline, frankly, is institutions playing with retail investors' expectations.

The end of the government shutdown sounds like good news, right? But Bitcoin dropped from $68,000 to $62,000. The reason is simple—during the shutdown, safe-haven funds accumulated and exited the market, while retail investors kept chasing higher prices, only to be precisely hit.

Looking at the Fed's 25 basis point rate cut, retail investors added positions overnight, but Bitcoin opened high and then declined, with only a 0.3% increase in a single day. Why? Because the expectation of rate cuts had already been fully digested by big institutions. When the news actually materialized, they had already completed their layout, and retail chasing the rally became their opposing force for selling pressure.

The most classic example is Bitcoin surging to $70,000—the entire network FOMOed to the top, but then a three-day crash followed. This is no coincidence. What the market truly wants is not the good news itself, but news that exceeds expectations. When everyone is shouting about good news, institutions have already packed up and exited.

To be honest, the difference between big players and retail investors is this: retail investors go all-in on good news, while institutions look at whether the good news can break consensus expectations. Understanding this is key to avoiding being harvested.

BTC-4,18%

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down_only_larry

· 2025-12-29 18:18

It's the same old story, retail investors are naturally destined to lose 🤷

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LiquidatedAgain

· 2025-12-29 11:24

Once again, I got precisely pierced. If only I knew earlier, it would have been worth a thousand gold.

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MevShadowranger

· 2025-12-29 09:45

Once again, good news turns into bad news. I'm tired of this routine; institutions just eat this up. --- Damn, it's always like this. When retail investors FOMO and rush in, institutions just run away. I'm really fed up. --- The key is the expectation gap. Only those who understand this can survive; everyone else is just a leek. --- Haha, next time I see good news, I'll just do the opposite. I’m sure I can make a profit. --- You're so right. The other day, I chased Bitcoin at a high and got caught for 5,000. Thinking about it now, it’s really painful. --- Institutions have long understood how to grasp expectations. The problem is how to follow their thinking. --- I didn't dare to act during the 70,000 wave; too many people shouting, which made it seem dangerous. --- Breaking the consensus expectation is the only chance. What about other times? You still have to rely on intuition.

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GasFeeSurvivor

· 2025-12-26 18:51

Here we go again, will it crash after all the good news is out? To put it plainly, retail investors are just being used as bagholders.

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OnchainHolmes

· 2025-12-26 18:48

It's the same story again. Every time, they say the good news is exhausted and then dump the market. Retail investors are never able to learn and avoid getting heavily exploited.

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OffchainWinner

· 2025-12-26 18:47

Damn, it's the same old story again. Retail investors are always the last to know.

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HalfIsEmpty

· 2025-12-26 18:46

Here we go again. I've heard this set of excuses a hundred times... Every time, it's after-the-fact analysis. When good news drops, they say expectations have been priced in; when bad news drops, they say the bottom has been confirmed. No matter what, they are always right.

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AirdropHarvester

· 2025-12-26 18:43

It's the same old trick again, retail investors being cut like leeks. --- Good news landing is a signal to sell, now I understand. --- Haha, I told you, I run every time the news comes out. Don't ask why, I'm just afraid of getting trapped. --- Institutions play this rhythm perfectly, retail investors react too slowly and are always the ones getting harvested. --- Wake up everyone, FOMO is the most expensive. --- The expectation gap is always the expectation gap, this is the essence of trading. --- If you still dare to chase the rally now, I can only say your courage is commendable. --- So the key is to know what institutions are doing in advance, but the problem is... it's basically impossible. --- Seeing through this logic makes me even more hopeless because there's no way to escape. --- I was stunned by the rate cut wave, it really opened high and closed low, too ruthless.

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AirdropSkeptic

· 2025-12-26 18:42

It's the same old arbitrage trick, the same script every time.

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WhaleShadow

· 2025-12-26 18:35

It's the same old trick again, retail investors chasing highs and selling lows, always one step behind the institutions.

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