The Christmas holiday just ended, but the enthusiasm in the crypto world hasn't cooled down at all.

Bitcoin is still bouncing between the 85,000 and 90,000 USD range. Looking at the trend, it's really jumping up and down. Currently, the price is hovering around $88,739, with Ethereum following along, showing no independent performance.

Where's the problem? Yesterday, a $24 billion Bitcoin options expiration took place. This scale is no joke, directly forcing both bulls and bears into a corner. Although there wasn't a cliff-like surge or flash crash, market volatility was instantly amplified, causing a sudden explosion. The most frightening moment was when Bitcoin prices on a major exchange suddenly plummeted to $24,000, then quickly rebounded—this is a typical "black swan" event in a low-liquidity environment, something to watch out for.

The key numbers now are two: 85,000 and 90,000.

85,000 is the dense support level for options, holding the market steady if maintained; 90,000 is the resistance above, breaking through it could open the way to higher levels. These two points are like a life-and-death line, with the market swinging wildly in between.

Interestingly, two worlds are emerging in the market.

Retail investor sentiment has hit rock bottom, with the fear index at only 23, indicating extreme panic. From a high of 126,000 down to now, a 30% decline, making this year's performance the worst in recent years. People's emotions are volatile, especially among beginners, who are quite scared.

On the other hand, institutional big players are quietly picking up bargains. MicroStrategy bought over 1,500 more Bitcoin last week, now holding nearly 190,000 coins. Citibank has stated that by 2026, Bitcoin could reach $143,000, and other major institutions see targets of 200,000 USD. Their logic is clear: now is not risk, but opportunity.

Technical and external factors are also quite complex.

From the weekly chart, Bitcoin has broken below the long-term bull-bear dividing line, so the short-term outlook isn't very optimistic. But on the 4-hour chart, it seems like it can't fall further, possibly leading to a small rebound. On the policy front, the US is relatively friendly toward cryptocurrencies, and its regulatory framework is gradually maturing, improving the overall environment.

Here's a suggestion:

In the short term, don't act recklessly. With such large fluctuations and uncertain direction, it's safest to stay on the sidelines.

In the medium term, if it can hold above 90,000, there's hope to go higher; if it breaks below 85,000 support, it might continue to test lower levels. Small attempts at key levels are okay, but be sure to set stop-losses to sleep peacefully.

In the long term, most institutions are optimistic about next year. They are positioning themselves now, waiting for the next cycle to start. Instead of obsessing over short-term volatility, think about your own investment time frame—that will determine how you should respond.