The numbers in the account are growing, but the mindset needs to be even calmer.

I still remember how I first entered this market eight years ago, holding onto the hard-earned 80,000 USDT, with a glimmer of hope in my eyes that is typical of beginners. Over the years, I’ve experienced every pitfall: liquidation, project zeroing out, exchange risks. During the most difficult times, people around me gradually left, and I was once so confused that I could only numb myself with alcohol.

But interestingly, despair often becomes the turning point. The bottom-fishing opportunity in 2025 changed everything, and the capital scale reached an unprecedented height. Now that Bitcoin has regained the $90,000 threshold, I want to share not a get-rich-quick methodology, but some thoughts on long-term survival in this market.

**Surface Panic vs. On-Chain Truth**

The current market sentiment is very delicate. The Fear & Greed Index has fallen to around 25, into the extreme fear zone. Short-term participants are taking large-scale stop-losses, with weekly losses reaching $4.5 billion.

But a closer look at on-chain data reveals that things are not so simple: Bitcoin reserves on exchanges have dropped to the lowest since 2018, while long-term holders continue to add positions. This stark contrast between apparent panic and the accumulation shown by on-chain data often indicates that the market is undergoing a normal adjustment phase within a bull cycle.

**The Big Turning Point in Liquidity**

The Federal Reserve’s policy stance in December is hawkish—although they cut interest rates by 25 basis points this time, only one more rate cut is expected next year, putting short-term market pressure. However, the key point is that quantitative tightening (QT) has already ended. The Fed has now launched a $40 billion monthly "Reserve Management Purchase" plan, and liquidity is forming a new turning point. This is undoubtedly a positive signal for risk assets in 2026.