Have you also heard the grand narratives about stablecoins about to revolutionize the payment system? But the reality might be a bit more sobering.

Recently, JPMorgan released a new report that directly exposes this bubble. They estimate that by 2028, the stablecoin market size will only reach $500-600 billion. What does this mean? Compared to the previous optimistic forecasts of $2 trillion to $4 trillion by some institutions, it's almost half. And even less than the trillion-dollar expectation the bank itself once gave.

Some might say this is just dampening enthusiasm. But upon closer reflection, this report is actually a wake-up call for the entire market.

**The Truth Behind the Numbers**

On the surface, it looks pretty good—the total market cap of stablecoins has indeed been rising, surpassing $300 billion this year, an increase of about $100 billion. Sounds impressive. But beneath this prosperity lies a harsh reality: most of this growth isn't driven by real-world application demand.

Do you know what the main driver of this growth is? Perpetual futures. This year, the stablecoin holdings on derivatives exchanges increased by about $20 billion, mainly because traders are going crazy with leverage. This is the real main driver behind the growth in stablecoin supply.

JPMorgan’s analysis team, including analyst Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, states very plainly: the demand for stablecoins is fundamentally a crypto market issue, not a payment issue. Think about it—where are most stablecoins used? DeFi lending, on-chain leverage, various crypto trading pairs. The actual use in daily payments? Basically negligible.

**The Self-Perpetuating Cycle in Crypto**

From another perspective, stablecoins are like a self-created cycle within the crypto world. Coins come in, exchanged for stablecoins; stablecoins are then exchanged for other tokens to trade, lend, or arbitrage. The entire ecosystem runs on itself; outside money doesn’t flow in, and outsiders don’t need to use it.

That’s the core problem. What should a real payment revolution look like? It should be you paying directly with stablecoins when buying coffee at the supermarket or shopping online. But in reality? Such scenarios are scarce.

JPMorgan’s forecast may sound less inspiring, but rather than dismissing it as pessimism, it’s more of a sober market diagnosis. What the market needs is exactly this kind of voice—neither blindly optimistic nor overly self-deprecating, but a rational judgment based on data. Stablecoins have potential, but the road ahead is much longer than many imagine.