With 2026 right around the corner, I initially thought the market would just quietly cross into a new year, but Ethereum suddenly exploded with a "big fish"—long-term holders' sales plummeted by 95%. Having been in this market for over a decade, I know very well how significant this signal is. Maybe this is the prelude to a rally in the new year.

Let's start with the core logic. The crypto market, at its essence, is a tug-of-war between supply and demand. When long-term holders are frantically offloading, it indicates market sentiment has collapsed, and a decline is almost certain; but if they stop selling, or even start quietly accumulating, it means selling pressure has bottomed out. Ethereum is currently in this situation—95% of the selling pressure has disappeared, and the massive "sell order army" on the market is basically wiped out. The remaining stage naturally belongs to the buyers.

Now, look at the timing. The end of the year is the golden period for institutions and big funds to position for the new year's rally. They usually quietly accumulate during this time, waiting for the New Year sentiment to warm up before pushing prices higher. Given Ethereum's current conditions, it's almost tailor-made for these big players—less on-chain selling pressure, attractive chart patterns, and expectations being lowered.

But we also need to stay rational. The "supply wall" around $3000 still needs close attention; it was once a key entry point for many, now it’s a resistance level. However, based on current capital strength, breaking through this level shouldn't be a problem. Once it breaks, the target is around $4400, roughly a 40% increase.