The best time for short positions often comes when most people are still chasing the price, but once the price falls to the bottom, it becomes the most dangerous position. When BTC fell from 117,000 to 107,000, no one dared to short; instead, they only started taking action when it dropped to over 80,000 — the logic behind this is worth pondering.

From a technical perspective, bear markets typically unfold according to the rhythm of the previous cycle. There is a high probability of forming a weekly level B wave rebound, with the high point of this rebound corresponding exactly to the right shoulder position of the head and shoulders pattern. Historical patterns do not repeat exactly, but they always follow a similar rhythm.

A common phenomenon in a bear market is called "dead cat bounce"—a sudden rebound that reignites hope for the bulls, turning the short positions into liquidity fertilizer. Once enough liquidity has accumulated in the bull trap, the market will truly continue to fall. At this stage, the liquidity for the bulls below is clearly insufficient. If you are a market maker, can you really make money by pushing the price down at this level?

This is not only the logic of the market but also the logic of human nature. Greed and fear alternate, driving the market forward wave after wave. Grasping this规律 will prevent you from being deceived by the superficial fluctuations of the market.