The same 600 million USD net selling pressure caused BTC to plummet by 7,000 points last time, but this week it is showing signs of upward movement—who is passively疯狂接盘 (crazy absorbing)?

Recently, I’ve been observing the bullish divergence in the spot market.
Over the past week, the spot market has endured a net selling pressure of 600 million (the entire network’s spot CVD shows an active net sell of 600 million).

However, the price has been very resilient.. Although it keeps showing signs of downward pressure, overall, it is still trending upward.

From this point of view, there is still a large amount of passive buy-in entering the market.. (Figure 1)

Compared to the situation without passive buy-in (Figure 2), from November 30 to December 1, the market also faced a net sell of 600 million.. and the price dropped by 7,000 points...

Clearly, in the past week, new funds have entered the market.. An example is the 900 million financing announced by MSTR on Monday, and the purchase of 10,000 BTC…

Looking at MSTR’s recent stock price movements and the continued bullish divergence, I believe MSTR has also been continuously buying this week. Here is the underlying reasoning:

1 Yesterday, driven by positive news about BTC, MSTR’s stock price soared, but after the rebound, it immediately declined, even more than BTC from the rebound top..

This indicates that MSTR has selling pressure, suspected to be continuing to sell shares via ATM mode to finance.. Simultaneously, they buy BTC with the financing, leading to passive buy-in of BTC..

Next Monday, we can verify this by looking at their purchase data.

2 Why is MSTR making a large buy at this time? Today, there is also news that they hope to actively persuade MSCI to withdraw the proposal to remove MSTR from the index..

They truly care about this and are preparing for it.. If they are indeed removed from the index, their stock will face tens of billions of selling pressure, possibly bringing their mNAV below 1, severely affecting their continued financing ability..

So, they have recently prepared:

1) 1.44 billion in funds to manage the cash flow of dividends over the next 21 months to stabilize the market. Preventing difficulties in continued financing and selling shares at no cost after being kicked out.

2） Starting from last week, they have been aggressively selling shares to buy BTC during the low mNAV phase (this is rare when mNAV is low).

Is this the last chance to seek financing before officially being removed in January? Or do they really think 90,000 USD is a very good entry point?

The logic in point 2) above remains to be validated in the next 1-2 weeks. If next week’s figures still show a 1 billion USD inflow and 10,000 BTC buy-in, it might confirm this.

In fact, yesterday’s MSTR stock price performance and the ongoing bullish divergence with BTC passive buy-in are gradually confirming this hypothesis.. We’ll see next Monday when they release the data..

Further observation is needed...