#美联储降息预测

2025 has come to an end, and for the financial circle, the last drama without a grand finale is the result of the Federal Reserve's December interest rate meeting. At present, given the weakness of the job market, the market generally expects a 25 basis point rate cut at this meeting, with a probability of more than 89%. So what impact will interest rate cuts have on the currency circle? I think the long term is undoubtedly a major positive, but in the short term, be careful of the downward trend of good realization.

📈 The market may have a brief upward attack before the interest rate cut

Bitcoin rose sharply in the early hours of this morning under the positive stimulation of the dovish speech of the potential next chairman of the Federal Reserve, once again hitting a recent high of 94,600 points. However, considering that it is currently less than 24 hours before the outcome of the interest rate meeting, it is not recommended to chase long at this position.

📉 The market may fall after the announcement of the interest rate cut results

This interest rate cut drama will have three endings tomorrow: the first outcome is to keep the existing interest rate unchanged, if so, in the case of the market's general expectation of interest rate cuts, this is undoubtedly a big bearish, and the market will undoubtedly fall sharply; The second ending is to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, which is consistent with the current expectations of the market, and beware of the "good out" market in the market, after all, the Fed will not cut interest rates in the short term after this interest rate cut, and it will no longer be good in the short term. Ending three, a rate cut of 50 basis points or more, which is undoubtedly positive, the market is expected to rise sharply, but considering that the probability of this occurrence is extremely low, we can not consider it for now. In addition, in addition to the results of interest rate cuts, we should also pay attention to Powell's speech after the interest rate meeting, which will have a corresponding impact on the market if dovish or hawkish.

📈 In the long run, the price of Bitcoin will be boosted by the positive at the beginning of the interest rate cut cycle

Interest rate cuts are expected to directly reduce the cost of holding US dollar assets, driving funds from traditional safe-haven assets to highly volatile assets. Bitcoin's narrative as "digital gold" has been reinforced in a low-interest rate environment, and its anti-inflation attributes have attracted institutional investors to reallocate their positions. Historical data shows that in the early days of the Fed's policy shift, the proportion of institutional holdings in Bitcoin's total market capitalization increased by an average of 12-15 percentage points, and the average daily inflow of Bitcoin was amplified by 3-5 times, forming a "capital depression effect". In addition, as institutions such as BlackRock and Fidelity continue to increase their holdings through spot ETFs, Bitcoin is transforming from a speculative asset to an allocation asset. During the interest rate cut cycle, institutional investors use Bitcoin as a hedge against currency depreciation, and their holding period extends from quarterly to inter-year. This structural change significantly enhances Bitcoin's market depth, making its price volatility more resilient than traditional assets.

💡 How do investors respond?

For short-term investors, it is recommended not to chase long positions at this position, you can lay out some short orders before the interest rate cut, and if the market falls after the interest rate cut, you can hold short orders for a period of time. For long-term investors, it is also recommended not to chase long when there is still one day to cut interest rates, and wait and see. The opportunity in the market is waiting, I wish you all a fortune every day!