Three Major US Economic Events: Bitcoin Faces Another Tremor

The market is reaching a critical point this week. Bitcoin is repeatedly testing around $93,000, with bulls and bears dancing on a knife’s edge. But what I’m watching isn’t the candlestick chart—it's three upcoming Federal Reserve “domestic issues” that could directly unlock the liquidity gate. My view is clear: whether December marks the new starting point for the bull market depends on data in the coming days.

1. Federal Reserve Year-End FOMC Meeting (Beijing Time, December 11, 03:00) $SOL
Key Point: Not “whether they cut rates,” but “what show Powell puts on”

The market’s expectation for a 25-basis-point rate cut in December has soared to nearly 90%—almost a sure thing. But don’t forget, the Fed excels at “hawkish rate cuts”—lowering rates while talking tough to suppress market sentiment. My personal judgment is the real storm this week comes down to two points:
- Dot Plot Expectations: If the Fed signals a slower pace of rate cuts in 2026 (for example, only three times instead of the four the market expects), the dollar may rebound, and Bitcoin may retest the $86,000 support.
- Powell’s Statement: If he emphasizes “inflation is not fully under control,” short-term panic is inevitable. But if he mentions downside economic risks, Bitcoin may seize the chance to rally.

My strategy: Reduce leveraged positions before the decision, keep enough ammo. If Bitcoin holds above $95,000 an hour after the rate decision, consider chasing longs; if it falls below $88,000, wait for a rebound to short.

2. Delayed September PCE Inflation Data (Around December 10)
Key Point: The Fed’s favorite “inflation ruler” determines policy confidence $BTC

September core PCE rose 2.8% year-over-year—an old number, but a government shutdown delayed its release, making it a “temporary reference” for the Fed. I think the market will focus on two details:
- Month-over-month trend: If the MoM increase exceeds 0.3%, rate cut expectations may cool, and Bitcoin could give back recent gains;
- Weak consumer spending signals: If September real personal consumption MoM is flat and data confirms weakness, the Fed is more likely to cut rates, boosting risk assets.

Caution: If data deviates significantly from expectations, volatility could be amplified. Especially since Bitcoin perpetual contract open interest is still as high as $78.7 billion, in this high-leverage environment, sharp moves could trigger cascading liquidations.

3. JOLTS Job Openings Data (December 9, 22:00)
Key Point: Labor market “hidden cracks”—the Fed’s real Achilles’ heel

The June US JOLTS data already showed the lowest hiring rate in 8 months, and this week will release the delayed September (and possibly October) data. I value this indicator because it directly reflects the economy’s “weak spot”:
- If job openings stay below 7.5 million, it means employer demand is slowing, giving the Fed more justification to cut rates;
- But if the unemployment rate doesn’t rise significantly (stays below 4.4%), the Fed may continue to “drag its feet.”

My observation: Recently, dovish Fed officials (like Daly) have frequently emphasized the “risk of sudden labor market deterioration.” This suggests that if JOLTS weakens, it will strengthen expectations for easing and fuel a Bitcoin rebound. $ETH

Summary: My Trading Mentality This Week

Liquidity is king: The Fed ending QT and injecting $13.5 billion in liquidity is essentially a “blood transfusion” for the market, but short-term sentiment is still data-driven.
Beware “sell the news”: If the Fed cuts rates but delivers a hawkish message, Bitcoin may repeat the December 1st flash crash (over 4.7% drop in a single day).
Not pessimistic long-term: Whale selling and ETF outflows are pressure points, but they also flush out weak hands. Once the Fed’s pivot is confirmed, Bitcoin’s high beta means its rebound will be the fiercest.
One last honest word: Don’t gamble on data, and definitely don’t fight your position. The market won’t close, but leverage will kick you out. Follow Ako for more first-hand information, precise crypto points, and industry knowledge—let me be your crypto guide. Remember, learning is your greatest asset.