Hassett to Succeed as Fed Chair? CICC: U.S. Treasuries and Dollar to Fall First Then Rise, Positive for U.S. Stocks

Question

[BlockBeats] The latest research report from CICC provides an interesting assessment: if Hassett does indeed become the next Fed Chair, US Treasury yields and the US dollar may first fall and then rise, and overall, this would be positive for US stocks.

The timeline looks roughly like this—at the beginning of 2026, Trump would announce his pick for the new chair. But Hassett can’t take office directly; he needs to be nominated as a board member first, approved by the Senate, then nominated as chair, and go through the confirmation process again. When Powell’s term ends in May next year, Hassett would officially take over, and the earliest he could really take charge would be at the June FOMC meeting.

The key timing is in Q1 next year. Once the new chair nomination is announced, market expectations will start to shift. If Hassett makes overly dovish statements at that time, US Treasury yields and the dollar could decline more than expected in the short term. However, as long as it doesn’t get to the point where the Fed’s independence is in question, once expectations settle and the US economy continues to recover, Treasury yields and the dollar are likely to rise again.

HashRateHustler · Accepted Answer

Hasset takes the stage? Don't be naive. Next quarter, it'll be another wave of chopping leeks.

MetamaskMechanic · Answer

Hassett takes the stage, and US stocks are about to take off? Hold on first, can this logic hold up...

AllInAlice · Answer

Wait, does the US stock market really take off only when Hassett comes to power? That logic seems a bit far-fetched. Is it actually due to favorable policies or just market hype?

MEVHunterWang · Answer

The narrative of "falling first and then rising" just sounds like storytelling. How much room is there for actual maneuvering?

HalfIsEmpty · Answer

Wait, I need to think this logic through... This "drop first, then rise" narrative sounds kind of familiar, it feels like it's always said this way.

As for the Fed chair nomination, it seems like it gets overhyped every time, but when it actually happens, there's not much reaction.

If you really look at the timing, the real focus is next year in Q1. Right now, it's all just speculation.

By the way, will the US stock market really buy into this, or is it just another opportunity to fleece retail investors?

SolidityStruggler · Answer

As for the Hassett situation, to put it plainly, it's just waiting to see how things get hyped up in the first quarter next year. U.S. Treasury bonds and the dollar first fall and then rise—this is just the usual pattern of fleecing retail investors, isn't it?

MultiSigFailMaster · Answer

Wait, Hassett won't take office until June next year? Then isn't it too early for me to stock up on US dollars now... I've heard the "drop first, then rise" theory too many times—when it really comes down to it, who can say for sure?

SmartContractRebel · Answer

Hassett taking over? Looks promising, this wave in US stocks seems steady.

Still need to wait for Q1 2025 to see what happens. As soon as the nomination is announced, the market will react immediately.

This pattern of dropping first and then rising—just worried there might be too many variables along the way.

Powell steps down in May, and then it’s another round of games.

The key is to watch what he does after taking office; hope there aren’t any real issues with independence.

I've been wanting to see the new Fed chair's performance for a while—this show is just getting started.

Honestly, the more bullish signals I see for US stocks, the more cautious I become.