The latest CME data just dropped a bombshell: the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December has soared to 87%. Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, two Wall Street veterans who were still on the sidelines just two weeks ago, have now directly switched gears to bet on a rate cut. The market’s exuberance can no longer be contained.

But inside the Fed, a game of power is unfolding.

The dovish camp is going all out. Key figures like Mester, Williams, and Daly have all spoken up: the current interest rate level is too high, and the labor market is already starting to struggle. Daly put it very bluntly—the difficulty of repairing a collapsing labor market is at least ten times greater than curbing an inflation rebound. Waller went even further, outright stating that a rate cut in December is a must, or else employment data will continue to deteriorate.

The hawks aren’t idle either. Four officials jointly warned: core CPI is still stuck at 3.3%, well above the target, and price pressures in the services sector are spreading. Loosen up now? All previous tightening efforts will be wasted. Collins has the toughest stance: the current interest rate is the proper setting to control inflation.

But Bitcoin has already made its move. BTC recently surged 6% in one shot, breaking straight through $90,000. On-chain data shows that whale addresses have accumulated 48,000 coins. The market is voting with real money.

Powell has repeatedly emphasized that “the threshold for rate cuts is higher,” and the dot plot has slashed rate cut expectations for 2025 in half. But the crypto market isn’t waiting for an official announcement—it’s taking off early.

There are now two clear paths on the table: if there really is a rate cut in December, BTC could head straight for the $100,000 to $120,000 range; if the rate cut is paused, the “buy the rumor, sell the news” crash scenario could play out at any moment.

How do you see this high-stakes gamble?