Yesterday I went through some on-chain data and various reports, and found a few interesting signals.

Starting with the capital flows: In the US, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $54.8 million yesterday, but Ethereum, on the other hand, experienced a net outflow of $75.2 million—that divergence is pretty intriguing. Meanwhile, Solana’s ETF attracted $15.7 million, showing that capital is moving quite actively between different sectors.

On-chain whale activity is also worth noting: a suspected BitMine address scooped up another 22,676 ETH within four hours, and another whale was even bolder, adding $14 million worth of altcoins to their portfolio, now holding a total of $74.83 million. Even more remarkable, an ancient whale dormant for 14 years suddenly woke up and moved 1,000 BTC—keep in mind, this batch of coins had an original cost of only $3.88 each.

On the technical side, analysts believe Bitcoin’s profit-taking phase is coming to an end, with selling pressure nearing exhaustion. If ETH can break above $3,200, there are $764 million worth of short positions on major exchanges that could get liquidated—that resistance level is extremely tight. The fear index has dropped to 23, bringing the market back into “extreme fear,” but a leading exchange predicts a possible recovery rally in December.

On the macro front, odds on Polymarket of a 25 basis point Fed rate cut in December have soared to 94%. September’s core PCE data came in below expectations, possibly paving the way for further cuts. Bank of America even believes the market will soon start betting on another rate cut in January.

Miscellaneous news: Grayscale has submitted an S-1 registration statement to the SEC for a SUI spot ETF, and an exchange is about to launch NIGHT spot trading. Analysts think the next Fed chair will face an extreme stress test—how to balance rate cuts, tariffs, and inflation—a real challenge.

That’s the state of the market: the data is all out there, and everyone can interpret it their own way.