2025-12-05 09:20:30

Here’s my take on the current market: we might still be in the early stages of a bear market.

There’s some data to support this—looking back at the last cycle, the distribution phase lasted from around February 2021 to November, just over 280 days. If you use that time frame for comparison, the current position is a bit tricky.

Of course, this is just my personal perspective. If you see it the same way, you can use it as one reference point; if you have a different view, feel free to ignore my logic altogether. When it comes to the market, different perspectives can lead to vastly different conclusions, so independent thinking is most important.

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WhaleWatcher

· 3h ago

This judgment about the early bear market... Comparing it to a 280-day cycle sounds a bit vague, but with data, it all depends on how you use it. History repeats itself, but never exactly the same. Will this time be different? Everyone always talks about independent thinking, but why do those who really make money never say anything in the comments section? 280 days? To me, it looks like an excuse to rationalize being stuck in a position. But the logic still makes sense. It's just that it feels like everyone is comparing to the last cycle. Could that actually be a contrarian indicator? Just take it as a reference. When it comes down to real action, it’s your own account that matters.

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BrokenDAO

· 4h ago

This 280-day framework looks quite convincing, but don't forget—history only rhymes, it doesn't repeat. The incentive structure of the last cycle is completely different from now, and the differences in mechanism design are enough to render this time frame invalid.

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LiquidationWizard

· 12-06 18:51

I’ve seen the data about the 280 days at the beginning of a bear market, but now it feels like the cycle is a bit different. There’s no clear bottom, how much longer do we have to wait to really buy at the bottom? Well said, independent thinking is most important, don’t get trapped by a single line of reasoning. Anyway, I’m going to keep doing dollar-cost averaging and stick with it until the distribution phase is over. If this round is really just the beginning, then there’s still a long way to go. Gotta keep the right mindset.

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OnlyUpOnly

· 12-06 01:50

Early stage of a bear market? I remember the 280-day data, but it seems a bit early to use it as a reference now. Hmm... the logic makes sense, let's see what happens next. 280 days, huh, then we might have to wait a bit longer. There are too many variables when comparing this cycle to the last one. The supporting evidence is solid, but the market never plays by the rules. What I’m more concerned about is when this cycle will actually take off. A 280-day cycle... thinking about it, it does seem a bit uncertain.

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BoredWatcher

· 12-05 09:50

The 280-day data is indeed interesting, but it feels like every cycle can be forced to fit some reason. Saying it's the early or mid stage of a bear market is like saying nothing at all; the key is whether you still have chips in your hand. But this logic is more reliable than those who just shout out signals—at least it admits it might be wrong. If the market really takes off this time, all these timing arguments will become a joke, and the opposite is equally true. Let's wait and see. It's all guessing anyway. Instead of counting days, it's better to look at more on-chain data. Feels like we still need to wait; the whole 280-day thing just sounds like hindsight bias. Now that you mention it, I feel even more confused, haha. This cycle theory stuff is becoming less and less effective these days—who knows?

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ParallelChainMaxi

· 12-05 09:50

Early bear market? The 280-day cycle comparison is interesting, but bro, can you tie your logic to on-chain data as well? Just looking at the timeline feels like something's missing. Firmly maintain independent thinking, don’t follow the crowd or copy others’ moves—it's this kind of spirit. This cycle feels like it’s on fast-forward; last time it took 280 days, maybe this time it’ll only take 120 days—who knows for sure? The 280-day cycle theory sounds rigorous, but what if this time, history really doesn’t repeat itself, it just rhymes? I’ll reserve judgment on whether it’s the early bear market, but your way of thinking is definitely clear-headed and not just hyping things up.

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AirdropHunterKing

· 12-05 09:48

280 days as a benchmark? Bro, I like your logic, but it does have that “seeing the whole picture from a single clue” vibe... Still, that's how the old hands do their calculations, so it makes sense.

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LiquidationHunter

· 12-05 09:48

The 280-day cycle data is indeed interesting, but I think it's still too early to draw conclusions. Saying it's the early stage of a bear market sounds solid, but what if it goes the other way? That's the charm of the market. No one can say for sure how long this round will last; history is just a reference. Your thinking is good, and your perspective is fresh, but I still plan to figure things out on my own. Comparing the 280-day distribution to now, the time scales are a bit complicated, so it doesn't feel that absolute. I agree with the idea of sticking to independent judgment—the most important thing is not to be swayed by any narrative.

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MetaverseVagabond

· 12-05 09:41

Early bear market? 280 days as a benchmark... Bro, that logic is a bit wild, but I'll still wait a bit longer before buying the dip.

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New_Ser_Ngmi

· 12-05 09:39

Early bear market? I feel like that 280-day logic is a bit forced... Wait, are you saying it still has to drop more? Then I need to hurry up and buy the dip. 280 days, huh? So we have to wait at least another half a year? Can't take it. Logic is logic, but the key is to see how the data goes later. It's too absolute to say now. Why does it feel like this cycle theory fits every time... But I agree with the independent thinking part—don't get fooled by these time points.

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