On December 5, Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi publicly stated: If there are excessive and disorderly fluctuations in the foreign exchange market, the government will intervene at an appropriate time. This sounds tough, but the story behind it isn’t that simple.

The foreign exchange market has always been a sensitive area. When the yen exchange rate experiences sharp swings, it’s not just about numbers—import and export companies see their costs change overnight, the profits and losses of cross-border investments can reverse instantly, and even ordinary people’s wallets will shrink. As the world’s third-largest economy, Japan’s exchange rate stability is crucial to the entire industrial chain. Hayashi’s statement is clearly a way to give the market a heads-up.

But here’s the problem: How will the government intervene? And when?

No one can say for sure right now. The forex market is a battlefield of multiple factors—the Fed’s policy shifts, sudden geopolitical events, commodity price surges—any of these variables can send exchange rates on a roller coaster ride. Even if the Bank of Japan does intervene with massive funds, how long the effects will last is still unknown.

For investors, this is something to pay close attention to.

If you hold yen assets, keep a close eye on policy moves; if you’re trading forex derivatives, don’t get swept away by short-term volatility; and for friends in the crypto market, don’t think this has nothing to do with you—once yen liquidity tightens, the impact will quickly ripple over to digital currencies. The market never lacks opportunities, but blind bets often end badly.

Remember this: News is for reference, not a starting gun.