#数字货币市场洞察 **2025.12.5 $BTC Market Observation Notes**

**[12.4 Trend Review]**
I previously mentioned a judgment criterion: if the price lingers below 93000 for an extended period, we need to be wary of retracement pressure. The key support is in the 91500-92000 area; when it reaches this zone, you can try small long positions, but it’s likely just a rebound opportunity. I estimate the true correction limit is around 90000-90500.

The actual price action validated this idea—yesterday, the price did move below 93000. Around 10:30 PM, it hit 91800 and then quickly rallied to 93250 but failed to hold, dipping to a low of 90900 in the early morning before rebounding to 92700.

**[12.5 Trend Outlook]**
The core question now: Is the correction over?

I tend to think it isn’t done yet. There are three reasons:

First, the price hasn’t really pulled back to the 90000-90500 zone, which I consider reasonable. Second, today’s rebound strength is mediocre—while it could pick up later, current performance suggests further downside is more likely. Third, my long orders at 90000-90500 have been waiting for quite a while, and this time I’m being aggressive—I haven’t set a stop loss and am prepared to add to my position.

Of course, if the price really can’t drop any lower, there’s a reversal signal worth watching: if it can effectively break through and hold above 93000, that suggests the lower support may not be reached. At that point, I’ll readjust my strategy and consider that the market may have stabilized and be ready for another rally.

We’ll see when the time comes—stay flexible.