Let me add an additional perspective I use to judge that we are currently in the early stages of a bear market. If you agree, feel free to use it as a reference; if not, just skip it:

Reviewing the last bull market, the distribution phase at the top lasted roughly from February to November 2021, about 280 days in total.

How did it play out specifically? In February 2021, Bitcoin first touched around $60,000, then consolidated at the top for about 3 months. Then, on May 19, a wave of extremely negative news crashed the price down to $28,000. Luckily, later a certain electric vehicle company was revealed to have purchased Bitcoin, and the price rebounded back to the previous highs and even broke slightly above them. This rebound took another 3 months. The second time at the top, it consolidated for another month and a half, and finally, after November, the bear market began. The entire distribution phase took more than 9 months.

What about this round? We can tentatively set the distribution cycle from December 2024 to October 2025, about 300 days. Of course, this is ongoing, and without the benefit of hindsight, we can only make assumptions based on the current trend.

Here’s how things look: In December 2024, Bitcoin touched $100,000 for the first time and consolidated at the top for over 2 months. Then, the US-China trade friction earlier this year pushed the price back down to $75,000. As trade tensions eased, Bitcoin rallied back to the previous high and broke out to $126,000, with the rally also taking about 3 months. However, there’s a key difference this time—the second consolidation at the top lasted a full 3 months, and finally, in October, the price began a sustained downward trend. The entire distribution phase has lasted 11 months.

Comparing the two, the distribution rhythm above $55,000 in the last bull market and the pattern above $100,000 this cycle are very similar. While there may be short-term deviations in the behavior of major players, over a longer time frame, the trading patterns of large funds actually follow certain rules.