#数字货币市场洞察 After staring at the BTC hourly chart all day, to be honest, this round of correction is far from over.

Let’s look at the technical side first. The Bollinger Bands are accelerating their downward expansion, with the price tightly pinned near the lower band, and a classic descending channel has formed. More importantly, the MACD indicator shows the green bars getting bigger and bigger, with the DIF line moving further below the DEA line—there’s absolutely no sign of bearish momentum weakening. Each minor rebound seems like a trap set for FOMO buyers.

On-chain signals are even more concerning. Over the past seven days, BTC balances on major exchanges have surged by 15%. What does this mean? Coins are rapidly flowing onto exchanges. At the same time, several whale addresses are continuously reducing their positions, with big money quietly exiting. The market sentiment index has already fallen into the “extreme fear” zone—retail investors are still calling for a bottom, but professional players have long since adjusted their positions.

The macro environment isn’t helping either. The Fed’s recent statements have been hawkish, weak economic data is dragging down risk assets, and regulatory uncertainty continues to brew. Without substantial bullish catalysts, can BTC break out on its own? That’s a tall order.

Personally, I prefer to keep waiting and watching. In the short term, there’s a high probability of retesting previous lows—getting in now is basically gambling with real money. The real opportunity lies in waiting for a stabilization signal—like a strong breakout with volume above the middle band, or a clear sign of large-scale accumulation on-chain. Taking action then will dramatically increase your odds.

In this market, patience is always worth more than courage. If you can avoid this wave of sell-offs, you’ll actually have capital left to profit when the next opportunity comes. $BTC $ETH