Friends who have been keeping a close eye on the market lately have probably noticed that the next three weeks will be particularly sensitive. The reason is simple—three major events are clustered in December, and each one could stir up the markets.

First up: on the 11th, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision. Interestingly, while everyone previously thought there wouldn’t be a rate cut in December, the sentiment has suddenly shifted, and the market is now pricing in an 87% probability of a rate cut. This reversal in expectations is itself a variable.

The even more dramatic event comes on the 19th. The Bank of Japan was originally expected to remain on hold, but in a speech this Monday, their governor basically confirmed a rate hike. With the Fed potentially loosening and the Bank of Japan tightening, these two forces will counteract each other, and no one can say for sure which way things will go.

At the end of the month, on the 26th, there’s another big event—#数字货币市场洞察 annual options expiration. This isn’t just any expiration; it’s both the end of Q4 and the final expiration of the year, with a notional value reaching $23 billion. Looking at current options data, the biggest pain point is at $100,000, with the largest PUT peak around $84,000. What does this mean? It’s going to be tough for the price to truly stabilize above $100,000 in December, while there’s also significant capital hedging for a drop at the $84k level. The sharp dip below $84k and the quick rebound a few days ago were most likely driven by this logic.

In short, keep an eye on every key date this month—volatility may exceed expectations.