#数字货币市场洞察 Here’s a harsh truth: the market hasn’t reversed like many people think. Counting from the peak, today marks exactly the 60th day.

If you’re still holding your positions and haven’t been shaken out, you really deserve some credit—you’ve made it through the initial stage of the bear market.

From a technical perspective, here’s something noteworthy: this round of correction has seen three bottoming rebounds—a classic three-wave down structure. Interestingly, each time we use the Fibonacci retracement to measure, the rebound height gets stuck around 0.5, hasn’t even touched 0.618, showing pretty weak momentum.

$BTC The rebound two days ago hit the 0.5 level and then got rejected, and today the market is once again a sea of red...

Now it all depends on whether we can see a narrowing consolidation with an upward breakout—a bullish flag formation. There are still expectations of rate cuts in December, possible policy signals from changes in the Fed’s personnel, plus clearer post-election policies. These factors might give the market a breather, maybe even trigger a stabilization rally. But honestly, it’s still too early to be talking about a bull market.