Recently, my inbox has exploded with DMs, all asking the same question: Can this rally go straight up to 96,000? Or will it pull back to 92,373 or even 89,000? I took a look at the charts and the latest news, and found that things aren’t that simple.

First, some big news—JPMorgan’s latest report mentioned that the public company holding the most Bitcoin, Strategy, won’t be forced to sell for now. The reason is simple: the value of their coins compared to their market cap is still above the regulatory safety line. Here’s the thing—you need to look at this in reverse. The market’s biggest fear was that this company might dump their coins, and now that risk is temporarily off the table. But don’t celebrate too soon. Their own stock price has also dropped sharply, and their recent Bitcoin purchases have slowed to a crawl, which means big money is still on the sidelines. Don’t expect them to drive the market in the short term.

Technically, things get even more interesting. On the 1-hour K-line, the trend does look upward on the surface, but there are two details to watch out for:

First is the 96,000 level. It’s become a wall—every recent rebound has stalled there, making it a classic strong resistance zone. Second is the MACD indicator. Although it’s still above the zero axis, it has already formed a bearish crossover—this is the kind of signal that fools people the most! It looks like it’s still rising, but in reality, momentum is starting to fade. It’s like hitting the gas pedal, but the engine RPMs just aren’t there. Looking at the volume below, it’s clearly shrinking, which shows both bulls and bears are waiting on the sidelines—nobody wants to make the first move.

My take: the odds of a direct, forceful breakout above 96,000 tonight are less than 30%. A more likely scenario is for the price to consolidate around the current level, or even pull back slightly to test lower support. In terms of strategy, I suggest being prepared for both cases: if you really want to go long, wait for a high-volume breakout above 96,000 first; if you want to short, consider setting up a short position near 95,500, with a stop loss above 96,300. Remember, at this level, patience is worth more than being impulsive.