#ETH走势分析 USDT to RMB exchange rate has broken through the 7.0 threshold, causing many to worry about whether there are issues with stablecoins. But a closer look at the market reveals a contradictory phenomenon: while the USDT price is declining, mainstream crypto assets are actually strengthening.

There are two clear logical threads behind this:

First is the shift in expectations regarding US dollar liquidity. The probability that the market expects a policy pivot from the Fed is now close to 90%. If a 50 basis point rate cut is indeed implemented next year, pressure on the US dollar index is almost inevitable. In an environment where the RMB is relatively strengthening, the USDT to RMB exchange rate will naturally come under pressure.

Second is the regulatory clampdown on cross-border capital channels. Recent measures to regulate the irregular flow of stablecoins have led to some existing funds being passively put into the market, with the short-term increase in supply directly reflected in the exchange rate. From another perspective, this is precisely a signal of market environment purification.

It is worth noting the historical pattern: in previous cycles, periodic pullbacks in the USDT price often occurred right before large-scale capital inflows. The reason is simple—when dollar liquidity begins to loosen, capital needs to find new allocation targets, and the crypto market often becomes one of the receiving pools.

There is now a clear divergence in market perception: some investors see exchange rate fluctuations as a risk signal and choose to exit, while others see it as a window for allocation. Some have already started arbitrage operations in the price range around 7.0, waiting to close positions when it rebounds above 7.5, with a theoretical profit margin of over 10%.

Opportunities in the market are often hidden while most people are still on the sidelines. At this point, will you choose to wait for a clearer signal, or start allocating in advance? Different choices reflect different understandings of market timing.