#数字货币市场洞察 **ETH Early Market Observation on December 5**

Looking at the $ETH one-hour chart, to be honest, this rebound feels pretty weak.

In terms of price action, the surge to 3227 the day before yesterday was just a bull trap, immediately followed by a big red candle dropping to 3064. And these past two days? It’s been that typical post-drop consolidation—small bullish and bearish candles grinding back and forth, with no real signs of a solid reversal. There were a few attempts to reach 3162 (the middle Bollinger band), but each time the price got pushed back down. Clearly, the bulls just don’t have enough strength.

The technicals tell an even clearer story:
- Price is stuck below the middle Bollinger band, with heavy resistance at 3216 above and 3109 as the current support below.
- The J value on KDJ has crossed above 50, but K and D are still sitting at low to mid levels, and J is nearly overbought—it’s hard to say how long this rebound can last.
- MACD is still wobbling below the zero line. The green bars have shrunk a bit, but a golden cross? Nowhere in sight. Bears haven’t really exited yet.

The most worrying part is the capital flow: net outflow of 434 million. With this kind of mass exodus, how strong can you really expect the price to be?

**Market Outlook**
In the short term, it’s likely to keep grinding in the 3109 to 3162 range. If 3109 doesn’t hold, we could see 3064 or even lower tested; even if there’s a rebound, 3200 would be the absolute ceiling. The overall downtrend remains unchanged.

In terms of trading, if there’s a rebound into the 3190-3220 range, consider trying a light short position, targeting the 3115 to 3070 area. Of course, this is just my personal view—make sure to adjust based on real-time market conditions.