#美联储重启降息步伐 $BTC $ETH $BNB Will there be another rate cut at the end of the year? A leading asset management giant has given a new assessment

Recently, a global asset management giant put forward a viewpoint—US employment data is cooling off, and the Federal Reserve is highly likely to continue cutting rates in December. This is no small matter for the crypto community.

Their logic goes like this: Currently, the US government is delaying data releases, making it hard for the Fed to get a clear picture of the real economy, so it can only adjust interest rates using a "risk management model." Now, the weak signals in the labor market have become the most important factor in their decision-making.

What exactly is happening? In four words: "stagnant but not collapsing." Companies are neither hiring en masse nor starting layoffs; the whole labor market is in a period of stagnation. Since the start of the year, new job creation has steadily declined, and both supply and demand are shrinking—especially as the sharp drop in immigration is directly affecting labor supply. Interestingly, though, wage growth remains steady and unemployment hasn’t surged, staying near historic lows.

Although inflation hasn’t yet dropped to the 2% target, the Fed has made it clear it intends to keep cutting rates. The market widely expects a 25 basis point cut next week, and this "frozen" labor market could leave room for further cuts in 2026.

One timing detail to note: October and November’s employment data, delayed due to the government shutdown, won’t be released until December 16—after the Fed's December policy meeting has already concluded. In other words, this decision may not be affected by those two months of data—even though there may be some anomalies in the October data caused by delayed government layoffs.

That said, the institution also offered a reminder: If the economy unexpectedly rebounds next year and companies start competing for workers, pushing inflation back up, the rules of the game could change again. Long-term Treasury yields would likely spike in that scenario. Based on this outlook, they’ve already adjusted their rating on long-term bonds to neutral and suggest staying flexible.

For the crypto market, expectations of loose liquidity remain, but don’t get overly optimistic—the macro environment could shift at any time.