Is the "supply shock" from Bitcoin halving really that magical?

First, let's clarify a concept—the so-called supply shock means that the number of new coins mined by miners each day is directly cut in half. It sounds like the market's supply has been put on pause, and newly entering tokens become instantly scarce. In theory, when demand exceeds supply, the price should go up, right?

But reality might not be that simple.

Question 1: Will history repeat itself?
Prices did rise after the previous halvings, but that's a pattern summarized in hindsight. What's different this time is that the entire market is watching the countdown, and everyone is waiting for a post-halving surge. When expectations are fully priced in ahead of time, could the actual event be a turning point where "all the good news is out"? Major players aren't stupid.

Question 2: Fewer new coins, but old coins remain
Halving only affects new supply, but there’s already a massive stockpile of existing coins in the market. These old coins could be sold at any time. A reduction in new supply doesn’t equal a decrease in total circulating volume. Essentially, this is a game among holders, seeing who gives in and sells first.

Question 3: Miners might act early
Halving means miners' income is cut in half, but electricity costs won’t drop accordingly. Some miners, looking to recover their losses, are likely to sell off their Bitcoin inventory around the halving. This wave of selling pressure could come earlier and stronger than you expect.

In short:
What really drives prices is never the event itself, but the gap between the event and market expectations. When everyone is fully prepared for the shock, the shock itself may have already been priced in.

Halving is not an automatic price surge switch; it’s more like a game between expectations and reality.