The market isn’t waiting for an official announcement about rate cuts anymore.

Just look at the current 89% probability of a rate cut in December—what does that number mean? There’s an unwritten rule in trading circles: 50% is considered wait-and-see, 70% suggests a leaning, and 80% means the market is forcing the central bank’s hand. Now it’s at 89%? Basically, everyone already thinks it’s a done deal.

US Treasuries are trading on this expectation, the stock market is pricing it in, and so is BTC. If the Fed suddenly doesn’t cut rates now, that would be a true black swan event.

And here’s the kicker: the probability of “at least one rate cut” before January next year is 64.8%. Pay attention to that wording—“at least once.”

The market isn’t betting on whether a cut happens at a specific meeting, but whether the entire rate-cutting cycle will officially kick off.

Here’s something many people don’t get: a crypto bull market never starts on the day of a rate cut; it ignites when expectations of a cut are formed. Now that expectations have exploded, money has already come in early. Why do you think BTC and ETH have been so steady lately? Because those who wanted to position themselves have already done so.

One more detail: the market is assigning a 27.6% probability to a 50 basis point cut before January.

A 50bp cut isn’t standard procedure—this means the market is starting to suspect the Fed might have lost control. What would cause such a sharp pivot? A debt crash, fiscal strain, fragile banking system, a reversal in employment data, sudden drop in inflation, or political pressure (you know, that former president factor).

At least half of these conditions have already been met.