Is it a bear market now? Definitely yes, but I don't think it's possible for the bear market to last over a year like before. In the first half of this year, $BTC dropped from 109,000 to 74,000, $ETH went from 4,200 to around 1,300, and altcoins saw average declines of over 70%. So from January to June this year, you could say it was a bear market. Many people insist it's just a bull market shakeout, but bull market corrections don't usually look like this.

Even with this recent drop, where BTC fell from 126,000 to 80,000, ETH from 4,900 to 2,600, and altcoins dropped 80%, this kind of decline can definitely be called a bear market. However, with Trump coming to power, Wall Street entering the market, and the crypto market becoming more like the US stock market, these factors will make the crypto market's movements increasingly resemble those of US stocks. The shakeouts are also more violent, and the duration of bear markets will be greatly shortened. So you don't need to despair about this bear market. It's unlikely that BTC will drop more than 70% as it did in previous bear markets. Once this bear market shakeout is over, BTC may take off again around mid-next year. Don't be surprised if it breaks new highs then. The new normal in crypto requires adapting to new trends. The four-year cycle will end in 2025, and 2026 will mark the start of a new cycle, but this cycle will follow the US stock market's rhythm.

Of course, the above analysis only applies to $BTC and mainstream coins that have passed ETF approval.