2025-11-05 01:06:37

#巨鲸行为分析 The difference between a retail investor and a professional trader often lies in the depth of understanding of breakout signals

Over the past few years, while monitoring the market, I have developed a methodology to determine whether a currency has achieved a true breakout or not — the four dimensions: volume, price, time, and range. This method has helped me avoid many false breakout traps.
**We start with trading volume**: After a long period of sideways movement, when the first increase in volume occurs, do not rush to enter. The market maker tries to test the market and then calms down, and when the second increase happens, that is the real opportunity. Many fall into the trap of the first volume, believing it is a launch signal, and in the end, they get stuck at the top.
**Then we move on to price performance**: Don't pay too much attention to volatility during trading, what matters is the closing price. If it can close steadily above the resistance level, that is the real indicator. I have seen many coins that rise during the day and then come back and crash, and in the end, it turns out to be a bull trap.
**The time aspect is also important**: It is better for the currency to be in a sideways period for more than 3 months, and the stake concentration should be less than 10%. This indicates that the market maker has accumulated enough stakes, and then there can be strong momentum after the breakout. Currencies that rise within two weeks are often short-term funds trading quickly.
**Finally, the area or space**: You should define the main resistance level — it could be the starting point after a previous sharp decline, the neckline of a double bottom or head and shoulders pattern, or simply a level of round numbers. Once the resistance level is clear, the area of the rise after the breakout can be estimated.
When looking at these four dimensions together, a real breakout can be distinguished from a false one with a rate of 80-90%. Of course, the market is always changing, and these methods need to be flexibly adjusted according to the situation.

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DaoDeveloper

2025-11-05 01:02:36

#巨鲸行为分析 **The difference between retail investors and professional traders often lies in the depth of understanding of breakout signals.**

Over the past few years of market analysis, I’ve developed a method to determine whether a coin truly breaks out—using four dimensions: volume, price, time, and space. This approach has helped me avoid many bull trap pitfalls.

**First, let’s talk about volume**: After a long sideways period, the first increase in trade volume—don’t rush to buy in immediately. The market maker tests the market with a shakeout, and only when volume increases a second time is it a real opportunity. Many people fall for the first volume spike, thinking it’s a signal of takeoff, only to get caught at the top.

**Next, look at price performance**: Don’t worry about the intraday fluctuations; focus on the closing price. If it can steadily stay above the resistance level at close, that’s meaningful. I’ve seen many coins that spike intraday and then fall back, ultimately proving to be bull traps.

**Time dimension is also important**: Preferably, the coin has been sideways for more than three months, with a concentration of holdings below 10%. This indicates that the market maker has accumulated enough, and the subsequent rally will have momentum. Coins that rise within two weeks of sideways movement are often driven by short-term funds that come in and out quickly.

**Finally, space judgment**: You need to identify key resistance levels—these could be the previous crash’s starting point, the neckline of a W bottom or head-and-shoulders bottom, or simply an round number. Once the resistance level is clear, you can roughly estimate the potential upside after a breakout.

By combining these four dimensions, you can generally distinguish between real and false breakouts with about 80-90% accuracy. Of course, the market is always changing, and these methods should be flexibly adjusted based on actual conditions.

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