Analysis of the AUD to TWD Exchange Rate: A Cross Perspective of Traditional forex and Crypto Assets Markets

Review of Recent Trends of the Australian Dollar

The Australian dollar, as the fifth largest currency by trading volume in the world, has shown overall poor performance in the past decade:

• The AUDUSD depreciated by over 35% between 2013 and 2023.
• The Australian dollar to US dollar exchange rate plummeted sharply in the fourth quarter of 2024, with an annual decline of about 9.2%.
• In early 2025, it dropped to 0.5933, marking a five-year low.

The main influencing factors include:

1. The U.S. monetary policy affects the global trade landscape.
2. A decline in raw material exports weakens the Australian dollar's status as a commodity currency.
3. The Australia-US interest rate differential is difficult to reverse.
4. Weak economic growth in Australia

Analysis of Key Factors Influencing the Future Trend of the Australian Dollar

The rebound of the Australian dollar depends on multiple factors, especially the comparison of the Australia-US interest rate differential and inflation rate.

Key influencing factors:

1. Australian Economy and Monetary Policy: Recent data shows a robust economy, reducing the likelihood of interest rate cuts.
2. Dollar Trends: Signals of adjustments in Federal Reserve policy may impact the strength of the dollar.
3. Global Trade Environment: Escalating trade frictions may be detrimental to the Australian dollar.
4. Cryptocurrency Market Trends: The correlation between crypto assets and traditional currencies is increasing.

Technical analysis:

• Preliminary resistance level 0.6625
• Larger upward target at 0.7000
• Immediate support 0.6414

Institutional Forecast:

• A certain investment bank: may rise to 0.72 by the end of the year
• A Swiss bank: Maintained around 0.68 at the end of the year

Interaction between the Australian Dollar and the Cryptocurrency Market

With the development of the cryptocurrency market, the correlation between the Australian dollar exchange rate and digital asset prices has become increasingly significant:

1. Australia's Crypto Regulatory Environment: Australia's friendly policies towards cryptocurrencies may indirectly support the exchange rate of the Australian dollar.
2. Cross-market capital flow: The flow of funds between the traditional foreign exchange market and the cryptocurrency market may affect the Australian dollar's trend.
3. Risk Appetite Indicator: The Australian dollar, as a risk currency, may reflect the global investors' attitude towards risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

Modern Ways to Invest in Australian Dollars

Investors can participate in the Australian dollar market in a variety of ways:

1. Traditional Forex Margin Trading:

   • Multi-directional trading for long and short positions
   • Use Leverage
   • The trading threshold is relatively low

2. Cryptocurrency Trading Platform:

   • Some mainstream CEXs offer trading pairs between Australian dollars and cryptocurrencies.
   • Seamless switching between traditional forex and digital assets

3. Australian Dollar Stablecoin:

   • Some blockchain projects have developed stablecoins pegged to the Australian dollar.
   • Provides new Australian dollar exposure management tools for crypto investors.

Note: Regardless of the investment method chosen, it is necessary to carefully assess the risks, as forex and cryptocurrency trading are both high-risk investments.

Australian Dollar Trend Observation Indicators

Paying attention to the following indicators can help investors better grasp the movements of the Australian dollar:

1. The monetary policy of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)
2. US Dollar Index Trend
3. Commodity prices, especially iron ore and coal
4. Domestic economic data in Australia, such as GDP, employment rate, and inflation rate.
5. Global economic environment, especially the economic situation in China
6. Market Risk Sentiment
7. Price trends of major cryptocurrencies (such as Bitcoin and Ethereum)

Australian Dollar Market Outlook

• The Australian dollar still maintains its commodity currency attribute.
• Global trade uncertainties and monetary policies of major economies may constrain the upward movement of the Australian dollar.
• The development of the cryptocurrency market may bring new influencing factors to the Australian dollar.

Investors should comprehensively consider the factors of traditional financial markets and emerging digital asset markets when participating in Australian dollar-related transactions, fully assessing risks and opportunities.