1:58 PM

The current market has revealed many pattern structures at this point, and the losses are caused by impulsive trading. The current strong resistance zone for ETH is 4740-70; this area represents a strong resistance zone, not a specific point. If it breaks through, it will form a head and shoulders bottom structure on the 4-hour chart, making it highly likely to rise above 4900. However, there can also be false breakouts, so don’t rush to chase long positions. If you don’t set stop-losses, you risk getting stuck at the peak. Setting stop-losses can be tricky and may become ineffective, but there will be opportunities to enter if there is a pullback. The current support below is at 4620, and the movement has been normal. If it breaks below, there is a lot of space beneath. Retail investors have a common flaw: 95% of people tend to look for higher prices when the market rises and lower prices when it falls. When placing trades, one needs to be rational. Personally, I am bearish, with a high probability of a waterfall decline for two reasons: first, the strong resistance zone + the 4-hour divergence + the daily strong resistance; whether it can break through will depend on future developments. Second, there is an expectation of interest rate cuts this month, but it’s uncertain whether this expectation will benefit or if it will be consumed ahead of time. One can refer to last month's expectations. Current trading requires caution; if you can’t control your impulses and want to make short trades, set reasonable defenses below 4620 for long positions and above 4770 for short positions, adding a little buffer.
There is no need to look at Bitcoin anymore, as there is no pressure on Bitcoin now. The visible pressure is just 10W6200, which is not a significant pressure given that Bitcoin has broken through its previous high. As for whether Ethereum and other altcoins will catch up, it depends on the results after Bitcoin releases funds and the expectations of interest rate cuts. Personally, I am bearish on Bitcoin down to around 12W, which is the 38.2 position of the Fibonacci sequence. If it breaks, there will be more room, while Ethereum is around 4620 to 4440.
For now, let's look at it this way: focus on a bearish outlook, with short positions as the main strategy. If it breaks and stabilizes at 4770 or if it pulls back significantly to 4440-60, we will reassess. For these two days, let's go with this approach.