🔥🔥ALL EYES ON FED🔥🔥

Is a Bigger Move Coming?

Today’s Fed decision is the main event, and markets are laser-focused.

📉 91% odds of a 25 bps rate cut
⚡️ ~9% chance of a shock 50 bps cut

If we get 50 bps?
🔥 It’d be the second straight September with a 50 bps cut
📆 Would echo September 2024’s bold move
🧨 First back-to-back 50 bps start to a cut cycle since 2008

This isn’t just a rate cut. It’s a macro moment.

✅ Base Case: 25 bps
The Soft Landing Play
•Inflation’s cooling ☑️
•Labor market’s softening ⚠️
•A 25 bps cut keeps the Fed in control mode
•Powell likely stays data-dependent and cautious

🧠 This is the Fed saying
“We’ve got this no panic.”

🧨 Wild Card: 50 bps
The Shock-and-Awe Cut
•Not the consensus, but on the table
•Signals
🔺 Growth fears are real
🔺 Inflation is under control
🔺 Fed is ready to move fast

Would ignite risk assets, but might raise recession alarms

🎯 What Matters Most Today
📊 Dot Plot Will they revise lower for 2026/2027?
🎙️ Powell’s Presser, Tone could shift markets more than the cut
📉 Economic Projections: Especially core PCE + unemployment

🔮 Final Word
🚀 25 bps cut is the likely move
⚡️ 50 bps would be a headline grabber
🧭 Powell’s words will chart the course for Q4 and beyond

The rate cut cycle is here. The pace is the question.

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