‍#GateSquare‍  #SparkProgram   

3 Reasons Why Ethereum Price Could Peak in Its Weakest Month

September is historically known as Ethereum's weakest month, with median returns showing losses of more than 12%. This year's September started off no different. ETF outflows and general market hesitancy kept the Ethereum price under pressure in the first week of September.

However, September 2025 may not repeat itself so easily. Three bullish signs have emerged, and this could push the Ethereum price to new highs in its historically weakest month. This would be a complete surprise!

Whales Buy Big as Weak Hands Exit

Currently, Ethereum is trading around $4,406. This week, ETH fell to $4,261 but quickly recovered.

Over the past 24 hours, the ETH price has been mostly stable, showing no signs of a potential breakout on paper. However, whales have been accumulating aggressively. The supply held in whale wallets outside of exchanges increased from 95.72 million ETH to 99.41 million ETH in just one day. This represents a net increase of 3.69 million ETH, worth more than $16 billion at current prices.

These large inflows from whales signal confidence. While retail traders may hesitate, whales appear to be positioning for a rally.

However, whale buying can encounter resistance if retail investors, especially short-term holders, sell. This appears to have been addressed. Whale buying coincides with weaker hands exiting the market.

The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric for short-term holders—which reflects the profit or loss of short-term holders—fell to 0.21, its second lowest level this month. Historically, local dips in this metric often signal recovery points, suggesting weaker hands exiting while others sit with smaller profits.

For example, on August 19th, when the NUPL was around 0.22, the price of Ethereum was $4,077. In subsequent sessions, ETH rose nearly 20% to $4,829.

The buying by whales and the selling by weaker hands paint a bullish picture. Even a 10% move from current levels (not 20%) could bring ETH closer to testing new highs.

Ethereum Price Levels and RSI Divergence Confirm Bullish Movement

The third reason for the surge towards a new all-time high comes from the charts themselves. Ethereum's daily price chart is showing a subtle bullish divergence. While ETH made a higher low, the Trading Strength Index (RSI)—which measures buying and selling momentum—made a lower low.

This divergence is significant because it typically signals a continuation of the trend. While the Ethereum price remains stable, it indicates that sellers are running out of steam. RSI divergences, combined with whale accumulation, further strengthen the bullish case.

The main resistance to watch for Ethereum after breaking through $4,496 is $4,672. A clean break above this level would open the way to $4,958 and potentially higher levels.

On the downside, a drop below $4,210 would weaken the bullish case.